nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ packers week 12, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

MIN logo
MINVikings
2-8
26
TBD
Lambeau Field
19°F
10 mph
26
GBPackers
5-5
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
19°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Vikings
3
10
7
3
3
26
Packers
7
0
0
16
3
26

Spread

MIN logo
+6

Total

OVER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
447
494
Total Plays
79
90
Yards / Play
5.7
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.12
Passing Yards
215
298
Comp/Att
21/30(70%)
28/54(52%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.02
Rushing Yards
232
196
Rush Attempts
43
34
Yards / Rush
5.4
5.8
EPA / Rush
+0.15
+0.18
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
28
30
Passing 1st downs
13
16
Rushing 1st downs
13
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
38%
19%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
16
Red Zone %
40%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.73
--
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-18
-18
Sack EPA
-6.92
-3.45
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
53
50
Penalty EPA
-8.04
-5.26

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model62.8%
Spread Pick
MIN logo
Vikings+6.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+7.7%
Cover Probability
55.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+45
Home nfelo
1,606
Away nfelo
1,424
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-192.8
Home QB Adjustment
-188.7
Away QB Adjustment
+4.1
Market Regression
-3.0
Final Difference
90.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

C. Ponder headshot

C. Ponder

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+4.1
Value
Ptile
12/16
-0.7
44
12/23
2.4
65
12/30
5.8
86
09/08
-6.2
13
09/15
-1.1
44
09/22
-0.7
45
10/27
0.1
50
11/03
2.1
65
11/07
1.6
61
11/17
-6.1
14
S. Tolzien headshot

S. Tolzien

Proj. Value
-6.4
Team Elo Adj
-188.7
Value
Ptile
11/17
0.2
51

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Packers Defense
Vikings logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
15
24
Yards / Game
15
24
Passing Yards / Game
21
29
Rushing Yards / Game
9
25

EPA

EPA / Play
15
28
EPA / Pass
27
26
EPA / Rush
1
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
8
Interceptions / Game
20
26
Fumbles / Game
29
9
Turnover EPA / Game
8
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
17
4th Down Efficiency
14
25
RZ Efficiency
17
18
Packers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Packers logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
9
32
Yards / Game
4
31
Passing Yards / Game
5
32
Rushing Yards / Game
7
16

EPA

EPA / Play
8
29
EPA / Pass
10
29
EPA / Rush
4
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
11
Interceptions / Game
16
25
Fumbles / Game
8
27
Turnover EPA / Game
13
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
30
4th Down Efficiency
2
25
RZ Efficiency
25
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
-10
L
L
O
09/15
-1
L
W
O
09/22
-4
L
L
O
09/29
7
W
W
O
10/13
-25
L
L
O
10/21
-16
L
L
U
10/27
-13
L
L
O
11/03
-4
L
W
U
11/07
7
W
W
O
11/17
-21
L
L
O
GB logo

Packers

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
-6
L
L
O
09/15
18
W
W
O
09/22
-4
L
L
O
10/06
13
W
W
U
10/13
2
W
W
U
10/20
18
W
W
U
10/27
13
W
W
O
11/04
-7
L
L
U
11/10
-14
L
L
U
11/17
-14
L
L
U