MINVikings
2-8
26
TBD
Lambeau Field
19°F
10 mph
26
GBPackers
5-5
TBD
Lambeau Field
19°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Vikings
3
10
7
3
3
26
Packers
7
0
0
16
3
26
Spread
+6
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
447
494
Total Plays
79
90
Yards / Play
5.7
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.12
Passing Yards
215
298
Comp/Att
21/30(70%)
28/54(52%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.02
Rushing Yards
232
196
Rush Attempts
43
34
Yards / Rush
5.4
5.8
EPA / Rush
+0.15
+0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
30
Passing 1st downs
13
16
Rushing 1st downs
13
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
38%
19%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
16
Red Zone %
40%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.73
--
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-18
-18
Sack EPA
-6.92
-3.45
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
53
50
Penalty EPA
-8.04
-5.26
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model62.7%
Spread Pick
Vikings+6.0
Expected Value
+7.7%
Cover Probability
55.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+45
Home nfelo
1,609
Away nfelo
1,428
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-192.8
Home QB Adjustment
-188.7
Away QB Adjustment
+4.1
Market Regression
-3.1
Final Difference
90.4
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
C. Ponder
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+4.1
S. Tolzien
Proj. Value
-6.4
Team Elo Adj
-188.7
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
24
Yards / Game
15
24
Passing Yards / Game
21
29
Rushing Yards / Game
9
25
EPA
EPA / Play
15
28
EPA / Pass
27
26
EPA / Rush
1
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
8
Interceptions / Game
20
26
Fumbles / Game
29
9
Turnover EPA / Game
8
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
17
4th Down Efficiency
14
25
RZ Efficiency
17
18
Packers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
32
Yards / Game
4
31
Passing Yards / Game
5
32
Rushing Yards / Game
7
16
EPA
EPA / Play
8
29
EPA / Pass
10
29
EPA / Rush
4
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
11
Interceptions / Game
16
25
Fumbles / Game
8
27
Turnover EPA / Game
13
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
30
4th Down Efficiency
2
25
RZ Efficiency
25
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
8-2
O/U
Packers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U