MINVikings
7-7
25
TBD
Lambeau Field
37°F
8 mph
38
GBPackers
8-6
TBD
Lambeau Field
37°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
3
10
0
12
25
Packers
14
14
0
10
38
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
446
348
Total Plays
75
58
Yards / Play
5.9
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.07
+0.11
Passing Yards
353
308
Comp/Att
34/50(68%)
28/39(72%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
7.9
EPA / Pass
+0.17
+0.28
Rushing Yards
93
40
Rush Attempts
21
15
Yards / Rush
4.4
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.24
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
18
18
Rushing 1st downs
4
1
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
33%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-9.58
--
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-29
-39
Sack EPA
-9.07
-7.26
Penalties
8
3
Penalty Yards
70
--
Penalty EPA
-7.61
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model64.6%
Spread Pick
Vikings+6.5
Expected Value
+6.1%
Cover Probability
55.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+59
Home nfelo
1,523
Away nfelo
1,512
Home Field
+51.6
Base HFA
+57.5
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.9
Home QB Adjustment
+22.4
Away QB Adjustment
+26.2
Market Regression
-4.8
Final Difference
104.9
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+26.2
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+22.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
25
Yards / Game
28
25
Passing Yards / Game
30
29
Rushing Yards / Game
32
10
EPA
EPA / Play
23
31
EPA / Pass
14
28
EPA / Rush
32
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
11
Interceptions / Game
2
8
Fumbles / Game
22
22
Turnover EPA / Game
29
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
26
4th Down Efficiency
22
24
RZ Efficiency
29
27
Packers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
5
Yards / Game
7
3
Passing Yards / Game
6
4
Rushing Yards / Game
22
19
EPA
EPA / Play
3
4
EPA / Pass
3
2
EPA / Rush
8
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
10
Interceptions / Game
7
14
Fumbles / Game
12
2
Turnover EPA / Game
28
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
15
4th Down Efficiency
19
2
RZ Efficiency
7
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Packers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U