MINVikings
10-6
10
TBD
Lambeau Field
29°F
9 mph
24
GBPackers
11-5
TBD
Lambeau Field
29°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
3
0
0
7
10
Packers
7
10
7
0
24
Spread
-11
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
324
326
Total Plays
62
67
Yards / Play
5.2
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.07
+0.13
Passing Yards
157
250
Comp/Att
11/30(37%)
23/33(70%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
7.6
EPA / Pass
-0.34
+0.25
Rushing Yards
167
76
Rush Attempts
29
31
Yards / Rush
5.8
2.5
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
20
Passing 1st downs
6
16
Rushing 1st downs
11
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
36%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.97
+5.17
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-23
-24
Sack EPA
-5.54
-4.08
Penalties
4
2
Penalty Yards
30
--
Penalty EPA
-4.95
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market81.7%
Model81.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+252
Home nfelo
1,640
Away nfelo
1,520
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+54.3
Home QB Adjustment
+1.8
Away QB Adjustment
-52.4
Market Regression
+42.6
Final Difference
259.9
Model Spread
-11.0
Quarterbacks
J. Webb
Proj. Value
-3.8
Team Elo Adj
-52.4
Value
Ptile
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
13
Yards / Game
20
16
Passing Yards / Game
30
22
Rushing Yards / Game
3
25
EPA
EPA / Play
14
19
EPA / Pass
22
8
EPA / Rush
4
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
4
Interceptions / Game
8
10
Fumbles / Game
21
29
Turnover EPA / Game
20
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
19
4th Down Efficiency
16
4
RZ Efficiency
17
28
Packers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
16
Yards / Game
15
15
Passing Yards / Game
8
30
Rushing Yards / Game
22
10
EPA
EPA / Play
6
15
EPA / Pass
5
24
EPA / Rush
20
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
21
Interceptions / Game
1
29
Fumbles / Game
9
9
Turnover EPA / Game
32
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
24
4th Down Efficiency
9
24
RZ Efficiency
2
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Packers
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U