MINVikings
11-2
7
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
37°F
5 mph
26
CARPanthers
5-8
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
37°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
7
0
0
7
Panthers
0
6
0
20
26
Spread
+8.5
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
237
397
Total Plays
45
76
Yards / Play
5.3
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.39
+0.04
Passing Yards
196
273
Comp/Att
17/27(63%)
21/34(62%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
8.0
EPA / Pass
-0.41
+0.38
Rushing Yards
41
124
Rush Attempts
14
40
Yards / Rush
2.9
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
23
Passing 1st downs
8
15
Rushing 1st downs
2
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
10%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
1
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
17
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.33
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-28
-26
Sack EPA
-7.51
-3.84
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
45
49
Penalty EPA
-5.33
-3.95
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-8.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market77.4%
Model70.8%
Spread Pick
Panthers+8.5
Expected Value
+17.7%
Cover Probability
61.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-105
Home nfelo
1,502
Away nfelo
1,626
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-55.2
Home QB Adjustment
-23.0
Away QB Adjustment
+32.1
Market Regression
-4.5
Final Difference
-153.6
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
B. Favre
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+32.1
M. Moore
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-23.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
9
Yards / Game
6
8
Passing Yards / Game
15
3
Rushing Yards / Game
11
23
EPA
EPA / Play
5
6
EPA / Pass
3
4
EPA / Rush
32
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
18
Interceptions / Game
1
6
Fumbles / Game
24
2
Turnover EPA / Game
25
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
6
4th Down Efficiency
8
21
RZ Efficiency
3
12
Panthers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
8
Yards / Game
19
4
Passing Yards / Game
22
24
Rushing Yards / Game
3
1
EPA
EPA / Play
22
3
EPA / Pass
22
12
EPA / Rush
8
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
19
Interceptions / Game
28
27
Fumbles / Game
13
5
Turnover EPA / Game
9
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
2
4th Down Efficiency
21
4
RZ Efficiency
18
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Panthers
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U