MINVikings
2-4
18
TBD
Gillette Stadium
49°F
16 mph
28
NEPatriots
5-1
TBD
Gillette Stadium
49°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
7
3
8
18
Patriots
0
7
14
7
28
Spread
-5
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
412
362
Total Plays
68
54
Yards / Play
6.1
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.30
Passing Yards
287
--
Comp/Att
26/39(67%)
16/27(59%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
--
EPA / Pass
+0.10
+0.39
Rushing Yards
125
122
Rush Attempts
28
27
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.13
+0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
18
Passing 1st downs
13
9
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
36%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.61
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-10
--
Sack EPA
-0.62
--
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
--
47
Penalty EPA
--
-8.33
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+102
Home nfelo
1,604
Away nfelo
1,573
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+19.6
Home QB Adjustment
-2.6
Away QB Adjustment
-22.2
Market Regression
-14.2
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
B. Favre
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-22.2
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-2.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
8
Yards / Game
23
25
Passing Yards / Game
12
25
Rushing Yards / Game
10
13
EPA
EPA / Play
27
20
EPA / Pass
30
15
EPA / Rush
14
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
24
Interceptions / Game
32
2
Fumbles / Game
22
13
Turnover EPA / Game
2
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
32
4th Down Efficiency
15
25
RZ Efficiency
30
22
Patriots Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
18
Yards / Game
7
8
Passing Yards / Game
23
6
Rushing Yards / Game
9
9
EPA
EPA / Play
1
9
EPA / Pass
2
10
EPA / Rush
2
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
15
Interceptions / Game
1
17
Fumbles / Game
2
22
Turnover EPA / Game
32
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
24
4th Down Efficiency
17
19
RZ Efficiency
9
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Patriots
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U