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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ patriots week 8, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIN logo
MINVikings
2-4
18
TBD
Gillette Stadium
49°F
16 mph
28
NEPatriots
5-1
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
49°F
16 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
7
3
8
18
Patriots
0
7
14
7
28

Spread

NE logo
-5

Total

OVER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
412
362
Total Plays
68
54
Yards / Play
6.1
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.30
Passing Yards
287
--
Comp/Att
26/39(67%)
16/27(59%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
--
EPA / Pass
+0.10
+0.39
Rushing Yards
125
122
Rush Attempts
28
27
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.13
+0.25
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
23
18
Passing 1st downs
13
9
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
36%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.61
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-10
--
Sack EPA
-0.62
--
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
--
47
Penalty EPA
--
-8.33

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+106
Home nfelo
1,605
Away nfelo
1,571
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+19.6
Home QB Adjustment
-2.6
Away QB Adjustment
-22.2
Market Regression
-16.0
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0

Quarterbacks

B. Favre headshot

B. Favre

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-22.2
Value
Ptile
12/28
3.9
75
01/03
12.0
99
01/17
5.1
82
01/24
1.7
61
09/09
-2.2
33
09/19
-7.4
9
09/26
-4.2
22
10/11
-2.7
31
10/17
-2.2
34
10/24
-4.7
19
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-2.6
Value
Ptile
12/20
-2.8
32
12/27
10.5
98
01/03
-2.3
36
01/10
-6.6
12
09/12
8.9
96
09/19
0.0
49
09/26
7.9
93
10/04
-0.4
46
10/17
-1.7
39
10/24
-2.5
32

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Patriots Defense
Vikings logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
29
8
Yards / Game
23
25
Passing Yards / Game
12
25
Rushing Yards / Game
10
13

EPA

EPA / Play
27
20
EPA / Pass
30
15
EPA / Rush
14
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
24
Interceptions / Game
32
2
Fumbles / Game
22
13
Turnover EPA / Game
2
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
32
4th Down Efficiency
15
25
RZ Efficiency
30
22
Patriots Offense vs Vikings Defense
Patriots logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
1
18
Yards / Game
7
8
Passing Yards / Game
23
6
Rushing Yards / Game
9
9

EPA

EPA / Play
1
9
EPA / Pass
2
10
EPA / Rush
2
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
15
Interceptions / Game
1
17
Fumbles / Game
2
22
Turnover EPA / Game
32
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
24
4th Down Efficiency
17
19
RZ Efficiency
9
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/28
-6
L
L
O
01/03
37
W
W
O
01/17
31
W
W
U
01/24
-3
L
W
O
09/09
-5
L
L
U
09/19
-4
L
L
U
09/26
14
W
W
U
10/11
-9
L
L
O
10/17
3
W
W
O
10/24
-4
L
L
O
NE logo

Patriots

7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/20
7
W
W
U
12/27
28
W
W
U
01/03
-7
L
W
O
01/10
-19
L
L
O
09/12
14
W
W
O
09/19
-14
L
L
O
09/26
8
W
L
O
10/04
27
W
W
O
10/17
3
W
P
U
10/24
3
W
W
U