MINVikings
6-4
10
TBD
Gillette Stadium
53°F
6 mph
24
NEPatriots
8-3
TBD
Gillette Stadium
53°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
7
3
0
10
Patriots
7
3
7
7
24
Spread
-6
Total
UNDER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
278
471
Total Plays
59
71
Yards / Play
4.7
6.6
EPA / Play
-0.21
+0.06
Passing Yards
183
--
Comp/Att
32/44(73%)
24/32(75%)
Yards / Pass
4.2
--
EPA / Pass
-0.26
+0.29
Rushing Yards
95
160
Rush Attempts
13
39
Yards / Rush
7.3
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.23
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
27
Passing 1st downs
11
14
Rushing 1st downs
5
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
25%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.96
-3.89
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-18
--
Sack EPA
-4.04
--
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
55
60
Penalty EPA
-4.27
-4.50
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+117
Home nfelo
1,663
Away nfelo
1,573
Home Field
+47.0
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.2
Net QB Adjustment
-19.1
Home QB Adjustment
-2.4
Away QB Adjustment
+16.7
Market Regression
+10.5
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+16.7
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-2.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
6
Yards / Game
20
15
Passing Yards / Game
6
9
Rushing Yards / Game
29
7
EPA
EPA / Play
27
7
EPA / Pass
25
5
EPA / Rush
32
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
32
Interceptions / Game
8
5
Fumbles / Game
25
14
Turnover EPA / Game
10
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
15
4th Down Efficiency
29
4
RZ Efficiency
21
24
Patriots Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
10
Yards / Game
4
4
Passing Yards / Game
25
3
Rushing Yards / Game
5
14
EPA
EPA / Play
4
2
EPA / Pass
7
1
EPA / Rush
6
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
17
Interceptions / Game
12
20
Fumbles / Game
8
19
Turnover EPA / Game
27
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
1
4th Down Efficiency
19
6
RZ Efficiency
10
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
5-4-1
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Patriots
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U