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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ rams week 4, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIN logo
MINVikings
1-1
31
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
75°F
3 mph
38
LARRams
3-0
LAR logo
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
75°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
13
8
3
31
Rams
7
21
10
0
38

Spread

MIN logo
LAR logo
7
P

Total

OVER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
448
556
Total Plays
72
55
Yards / Play
6.2
10.1
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.36
Passing Yards
394
456
Comp/Att
36/51(71%)
26/34(76%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
13.4
EPA / Pass
+0.30
+0.73
Rushing Yards
54
100
Rush Attempts
17
20
Yards / Rush
3.2
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
25
25
Passing 1st downs
22
19
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
50%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
8
1
3rd Down Attempts
16
6
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.59
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-30
-9
Sack EPA
-8.88
-1.69
Penalties
4
2
Penalty Yards
35
--
Penalty EPA
-4.22
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+195
Home nfelo
1,681
Away nfelo
1,598
Home Field
+97.8
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
+20.5
Net QB Adjustment
+14.6
Home QB Adjustment
+22.5
Away QB Adjustment
+7.9
Market Regression
+15.5
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+7.9
Value
Ptile
11/19
7.3
91
11/23
-5.7
16
11/30
-3.5
27
12/10
-3.4
28
12/17
2.3
69
12/24
3.4
77
12/31
-9.7
3
09/09
0.6
51
09/16
9.6
95
09/23
0.1
47
J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+22.5
Value
Ptile
11/19
-1.0
45
11/26
0.9
59
12/03
1.0
60
12/10
0.9
59
12/17
-2.9
32
12/24
5.6
87
01/06
-2.9
33
09/10
0.3
49
09/16
3.0
70
09/23
9.7
95

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Rams Defense
Vikings logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
18
18
Yards / Game
20
20
Passing Yards / Game
6
15
Rushing Yards / Game
29
17

EPA

EPA / Play
27
17
EPA / Pass
25
10
EPA / Rush
32
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
26
Interceptions / Game
8
5
Fumbles / Game
25
6
Turnover EPA / Game
10
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
6
4th Down Efficiency
29
21
RZ Efficiency
21
15
Rams Offense vs Vikings Defense
Rams logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
2
10
Yards / Game
3
4
Passing Yards / Game
9
3
Rushing Yards / Game
3
14

EPA

EPA / Play
3
2
EPA / Pass
5
1
EPA / Rush
3
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
17
Interceptions / Game
12
20
Fumbles / Game
6
19
Turnover EPA / Game
28
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
1
4th Down Efficiency
19
6
RZ Efficiency
19
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

6-3-1
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/03
5
W
W
U
12/10
-7
L
L
O
12/17
27
W
W
U
12/23
16
W
W
U
12/31
13
W
L
U
01/14
5
W
L
O
01/21
-31
L
L
O
09/09
8
W
W
U
09/16
0
T
L
O
09/23
-21
L
L
U
LAR logo

Rams

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/26
6
W
W
U
12/03
16
W
W
O
12/10
-8
L
L
O
12/17
35
W
W
O
12/24
4
W
L
O
12/31
-21
L
L
O
01/06
-13
L
L
U
09/10
20
W
W
U
09/16
34
W
W
U
09/23
12
W
W
O