MINVikings
1-1
31
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
75°F
3 mph
38
LARRams
3-0
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
75°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
13
8
3
31
Rams
7
21
10
0
38
Spread
7
P
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
448
556
Total Plays
72
55
Yards / Play
6.2
10.1
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.36
Passing Yards
394
456
Comp/Att
36/51(71%)
26/34(76%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
13.4
EPA / Pass
+0.30
+0.73
Rushing Yards
54
100
Rush Attempts
17
20
Yards / Rush
3.2
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
25
Passing 1st downs
22
19
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
50%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
8
1
3rd Down Attempts
16
6
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.59
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-30
-9
Sack EPA
-8.88
-1.69
Penalties
4
2
Penalty Yards
35
--
Penalty EPA
-4.22
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+192
Home nfelo
1,682
Away nfelo
1,602
Home Field
+96.7
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.8
Time Adj
+20.3
Net QB Adjustment
+14.6
Home QB Adjustment
+22.5
Away QB Adjustment
+7.9
Market Regression
+15.5
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+7.9
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+22.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
18
Yards / Game
20
20
Passing Yards / Game
6
15
Rushing Yards / Game
29
17
EPA
EPA / Play
27
17
EPA / Pass
25
10
EPA / Rush
32
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
26
Interceptions / Game
8
5
Fumbles / Game
25
6
Turnover EPA / Game
10
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
6
4th Down Efficiency
29
21
RZ Efficiency
21
15
Rams Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
10
Yards / Game
3
4
Passing Yards / Game
9
3
Rushing Yards / Game
3
14
EPA
EPA / Play
3
2
EPA / Pass
5
1
EPA / Rush
3
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
17
Interceptions / Game
12
20
Fumbles / Game
6
19
Turnover EPA / Game
28
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
1
4th Down Efficiency
19
6
RZ Efficiency
19
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
6-3-1
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Rams
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U