MINVikings
14-3
9
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
027
LARRams
10-7
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
3
6
0
9
Rams
10
8
3
0
21
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
269
292
Total Plays
72
51
Yards / Play
3.7
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.28
+0.02
Passing Yards
163
202
Comp/Att
25/41(61%)
19/27(70%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
7.5
EPA / Pass
-0.73
+0.20
Rushing Yards
106
90
Rush Attempts
22
22
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
16
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
35%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
17
10
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-13.55
--
Sacks
9
2
Sack Yards
-82
-7
Sack EPA
-25.24
-2.43
Penalties
2
10
Penalty Yards
--
95
Penalty EPA
--
-12.22
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-52
Home nfelo
1,550
Away nfelo
1,600
Home Field
+13.9
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+13.9
Net QB Adjustment
-11.5
Home QB Adjustment
-0.8
Away QB Adjustment
+10.7
Market Regression
-21.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
+10.7
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-0.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
15
Yards / Game
12
24
Passing Yards / Game
3
15
Rushing Yards / Game
19
28
EPA
EPA / Play
17
20
EPA / Pass
17
13
EPA / Rush
23
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
23
Interceptions / Game
18
15
Fumbles / Game
19
25
Turnover EPA / Game
11
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
18
4th Down Efficiency
29
6
RZ Efficiency
19
4
Rams Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
4
Yards / Game
14
14
Passing Yards / Game
31
31
Rushing Yards / Game
23
2
EPA
EPA / Play
14
2
EPA / Pass
12
7
EPA / Rush
27
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
4
Interceptions / Game
7
1
Fumbles / Game
11
13
Turnover EPA / Game
28
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
2
4th Down Efficiency
7
1
RZ Efficiency
25
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
9-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Rams
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U