MINVikings
3-4
31
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
56°F
8 mph
34
BALRavens
5-2
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
56°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Vikings
7
10
7
7
0
31
Ravens
3
7
7
14
3
34
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
318
500
Total Plays
52
89
Yards / Play
6.1
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.30
+0.16
Passing Yards
--
253
Comp/Att
17/28(61%)
27/41(66%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.27
-0.04
Rushing Yards
131
247
Rush Attempts
24
45
Yards / Rush
5.5
5.5
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
36
Passing 1st downs
6
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
17
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
36%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-10.14
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-13
Sack EPA
--
-2.81
Penalties
8
8
Penalty Yards
107
61
Penalty EPA
-14.37
-7.74
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+191
Home nfelo
1,611
Away nfelo
1,485
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+40.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+11.7
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.2
Time Adj
+7.3
Net QB Adjustment
-8.4
Home QB Adjustment
+5.4
Away QB Adjustment
+13.8
Market Regression
+27.8
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+13.8
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+5.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
18
Yards / Game
10
24
Passing Yards / Game
15
29
Rushing Yards / Game
17
2
EPA
EPA / Play
18
23
EPA / Pass
12
30
EPA / Rush
26
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
3
Interceptions / Game
2
27
Fumbles / Game
7
27
Turnover EPA / Game
30
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
3
4th Down Efficiency
15
23
RZ Efficiency
10
12
Ravens Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
24
Yards / Game
6
30
Passing Yards / Game
6
24
Rushing Yards / Game
3
26
EPA
EPA / Play
16
15
EPA / Pass
20
6
EPA / Rush
8
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
29
Interceptions / Game
28
12
Fumbles / Game
13
18
Turnover EPA / Game
5
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
4
4th Down Efficiency
3
11
RZ Efficiency
13
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Ravens
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U