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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ ravens week 14, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIN logo
MINVikings
3-8
26
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
33°F
7 mph
29
BALRavens
6-6
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
33°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
3
3
20
26
Ravens
7
0
0
22
29

Spread

MIN logo
+6

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
379
327
Total Plays
64
80
Yards / Play
5.9
4.1
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.03
Passing Yards
--
230
Comp/Att
17/39(44%)
28/51(55%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.5
EPA / Pass
+0.21
-0.13
Rushing Yards
114
97
Rush Attempts
25
27
Yards / Rush
4.6
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.23
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
15
23
Passing 1st downs
11
17
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
29%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
17
16
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.15
-10.05
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-17
Sack EPA
--
-2.51
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
90
45
Penalty EPA
-7.62
-3.16

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+183
Home nfelo
1,549
Away nfelo
1,440
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+0.2
Home QB Adjustment
-16.1
Away QB Adjustment
-16.3
Market Regression
-43.9
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

M. Cassel headshot

M. Cassel

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-16.3
Value
Ptile
09/09
-0.4
47
09/16
-1.4
40
09/23
-5.3
16
09/30
-4.6
21
10/07
-5.5
15
11/01
-1.2
41
11/12
-6.0
13
11/18
-4.9
19
09/29
4.1
79
10/13
-1.3
43
J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-16.1
Value
Ptile
09/22
-1.9
39
09/29
-9.3
4
10/06
-2.2
37
10/13
0.8
56
10/20
3.9
76
11/03
-2.1
38
11/10
-8.0
8
11/17
-6.7
12
11/24
-2.5
36
11/28
2.1
65

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Ravens Defense
Vikings logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
15
11
Yards / Game
15
12
Passing Yards / Game
21
4
Rushing Yards / Game
9
10

EPA

EPA / Play
15
10
EPA / Pass
27
13
EPA / Rush
1
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
4
Interceptions / Game
20
14
Fumbles / Game
29
29
Turnover EPA / Game
8
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
3
4th Down Efficiency
14
23
RZ Efficiency
17
8
Ravens Offense vs Vikings Defense
Ravens logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
25
32
Yards / Game
28
31
Passing Yards / Game
12
32
Rushing Yards / Game
30
16

EPA

EPA / Play
23
29
EPA / Pass
21
29
EPA / Rush
31
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
11
Interceptions / Game
31
25
Fumbles / Game
9
27
Turnover EPA / Game
18
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
30
4th Down Efficiency
23
25
RZ Efficiency
31
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

3-6-1
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/22
-4
L
L
O
09/29
7
W
W
O
10/13
-25
L
L
O
10/21
-16
L
L
U
10/27
-13
L
L
O
11/03
-4
L
W
U
11/07
7
W
W
O
11/17
-21
L
L
O
11/24
0
T
W
O
12/01
3
W
W
U
BAL logo

Ravens

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/22
21
W
W
U
09/29
-3
L
L
U
10/06
3
W
W
O
10/13
-2
L
L
U
10/20
-3
L
L
U
11/03
-6
L
L
O
11/10
3
W
W
U
11/17
-3
L
W
O
11/24
16
W
W
U
11/28
2
W
L
O