MINVikings
3-8
26
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
33°F
7 mph
29
BALRavens
6-6
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
33°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
3
3
20
26
Ravens
7
0
0
22
29
Spread
+6
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
379
327
Total Plays
64
80
Yards / Play
5.9
4.1
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.03
Passing Yards
--
230
Comp/Att
17/39(44%)
28/51(55%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.5
EPA / Pass
+0.21
-0.13
Rushing Yards
114
97
Rush Attempts
25
27
Yards / Rush
4.6
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.23
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
23
Passing 1st downs
11
17
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
29%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
17
16
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.15
-10.05
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-17
Sack EPA
--
-2.51
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
90
45
Penalty EPA
-7.62
-3.16
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+183
Home nfelo
1,549
Away nfelo
1,440
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+0.2
Home QB Adjustment
-16.1
Away QB Adjustment
-16.3
Market Regression
-43.9
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-16.3
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-16.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
11
Yards / Game
15
12
Passing Yards / Game
21
4
Rushing Yards / Game
9
10
EPA
EPA / Play
15
10
EPA / Pass
27
13
EPA / Rush
1
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
4
Interceptions / Game
20
14
Fumbles / Game
29
29
Turnover EPA / Game
8
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
3
4th Down Efficiency
14
23
RZ Efficiency
17
8
Ravens Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
32
Yards / Game
28
31
Passing Yards / Game
12
32
Rushing Yards / Game
30
16
EPA
EPA / Play
23
29
EPA / Pass
21
29
EPA / Rush
31
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
11
Interceptions / Game
31
25
Fumbles / Game
9
27
Turnover EPA / Game
18
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
30
4th Down Efficiency
23
25
RZ Efficiency
31
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
3-6-1
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Ravens
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U