nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ saints week 18, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

MIN logo
MINVikings
10-6
26
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
20
NOSaints
13-3
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Vikings
3
10
7
0
6
26
Saints
3
7
0
10
0
20

Spread

MIN logo
+7

Total

UNDER
50

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
362
324
Total Plays
74
54
Yards / Play
4.9
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.19
Passing Yards
226
227
Comp/Att
19/31(61%)
27/34(79%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
6.7
EPA / Pass
+0.16
-0.32
Rushing Yards
136
97
Rush Attempts
40
17
Yards / Rush
3.4
5.7
EPA / Rush
-0.10
+0.26
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
56%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
10
4
3rd Down Attempts
18
11
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-6.19
-9.76
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-16
-31
Sack EPA
-4.56
-10.28
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
26
52
Penalty EPA
-2.97
-3.56

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model73.9%
Spread Pick
NO logo
Saints-7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+4.3%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+217
Home nfelo
1,688
Away nfelo
1,553
Home Field
+45.8
Base HFA
+45.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+16.5
Home QB Adjustment
+25.4
Away QB Adjustment
+8.8
Market Regression
-16.9
Final Difference
180.5
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+8.8
Value
Ptile
10/13
6.9
90
10/20
8.9
95
10/24
0.9
59
11/03
1.1
61
11/10
3.5
75
11/17
5.8
85
12/02
0.7
58
12/08
1.4
64
12/15
1.3
63
12/23
-9.7
5
D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+25.4
Value
Ptile
09/15
-7.2
10
10/27
8.7
94
11/10
-5.2
19
11/17
3.9
78
11/24
5.9
86
11/28
-2.1
37
12/08
16.0
100
12/16
12.1
99
12/22
3.2
73
12/29
4.1
79

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Saints Defense
Vikings logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
11
14
Yards / Game
18
10
Passing Yards / Game
32
20
Rushing Yards / Game
8
4

EPA

EPA / Play
10
8
EPA / Pass
9
13
EPA / Rush
13
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
29
Interceptions / Game
7
16
Fumbles / Game
25
9
Turnover EPA / Game
21
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
8
4th Down Efficiency
16
11
RZ Efficiency
10
23
Saints Offense vs Vikings Defense
Saints logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
5
6
Yards / Game
9
13
Passing Yards / Game
29
24
Rushing Yards / Game
16
17

EPA

EPA / Play
5
5
EPA / Pass
4
6
EPA / Rush
14
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
23
Interceptions / Game
4
3
Fumbles / Game
1
3
Turnover EPA / Game
32
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
19
4th Down Efficiency
24
22
RZ Efficiency
13
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/20
12
W
W
O
10/24
10
W
L
U
11/03
-3
L
L
O
11/10
4
W
W
O
11/17
4
W
L
O
12/02
-7
L
L
O
12/08
13
W
W
U
12/15
29
W
W
O
12/23
-13
L
L
U
12/29
-2
L
W
O
NO logo

Saints

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/20
11
W
W
O
10/27
22
W
W
U
11/10
-17
L
L
U
11/17
17
W
W
O
11/24
3
W
L
O
11/28
8
W
W
U
12/08
-2
L
L
O
12/16
27
W
W
U
12/22
10
W
W
O
12/29
32
W
W
O