MINVikings
10-6
26
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
020
NOSaints
13-3
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Vikings
3
10
7
0
6
26
Saints
3
7
0
10
0
20
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
362
324
Total Plays
74
54
Yards / Play
4.9
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.19
Passing Yards
226
227
Comp/Att
19/31(61%)
27/34(79%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
6.7
EPA / Pass
+0.16
-0.32
Rushing Yards
136
97
Rush Attempts
40
17
Yards / Rush
3.4
5.7
EPA / Rush
-0.10
+0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
56%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
10
4
3rd Down Attempts
18
11
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-6.19
-9.76
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-16
-31
Sack EPA
-4.56
-10.28
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
26
52
Penalty EPA
-2.97
-3.56
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model75.0%
Spread Pick
Saints-7.0
Expected Value
+4.3%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+222
Home nfelo
1,692
Away nfelo
1,553
Home Field
+45.8
Base HFA
+45.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+16.5
Home QB Adjustment
+25.4
Away QB Adjustment
+8.8
Market Regression
-7.0
Final Difference
190.4
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+8.8
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+25.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
14
Yards / Game
18
10
Passing Yards / Game
32
20
Rushing Yards / Game
8
4
EPA
EPA / Play
10
8
EPA / Pass
9
13
EPA / Rush
13
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
29
Interceptions / Game
7
16
Fumbles / Game
25
9
Turnover EPA / Game
21
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
8
4th Down Efficiency
16
11
RZ Efficiency
10
23
Saints Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
6
Yards / Game
9
13
Passing Yards / Game
29
24
Rushing Yards / Game
16
17
EPA
EPA / Play
5
5
EPA / Pass
4
6
EPA / Rush
14
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
23
Interceptions / Game
4
3
Fumbles / Game
1
3
Turnover EPA / Game
32
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
19
4th Down Efficiency
24
22
RZ Efficiency
13
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Saints
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U