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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ seahawks week 14, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIN logo
MINVikings
6-5
7
TBD
Lumen Field
48°F
9 mph
21
SEASeahawks
7-5
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
48°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
0
0
7
7
Seahawks
0
3
0
12
15

Spread

SEA logo
-3

Total

UNDER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
276
276
Total Plays
56
65
Yards / Play
4.9
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.33
-0.02
Passing Yards
199
62
Comp/Att
20/33(61%)
10/21(48%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
3.0
EPA / Pass
-0.36
-0.62
Rushing Yards
77
214
Rush Attempts
21
42
Yards / Rush
3.7
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.23
+0.19
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
16
19
Passing 1st downs
9
4
Rushing 1st downs
5
13
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
20%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
10
11
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.04
-5.46
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-9
-12
Sack EPA
-10.31
-2.82
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
51
45
Penalty EPA
-6.59
-6.59

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+86
Home nfelo
1,558
Away nfelo
1,553
Home Field
+79.8
Base HFA
+58.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+21.1
Net QB Adjustment
+0.4
Home QB Adjustment
+9.6
Away QB Adjustment
+9.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+9.2
Value
Ptile
09/23
0.1
47
09/27
10.4
97
10/07
4.9
78
10/14
-0.2
45
10/21
2.0
62
10/28
2.3
65
11/04
-1.3
37
11/18
0.1
47
11/25
8.9
94
12/02
-3.0
27
R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+9.6
Value
Ptile
09/23
-0.5
43
09/30
-0.9
40
10/07
1.6
58
10/14
2.7
68
10/28
5.4
82
11/04
1.2
54
11/11
5.1
81
11/15
1.7
59
11/25
4.5
77
12/02
1.7
59

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Vikings logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
18
13
Yards / Game
20
19
Passing Yards / Game
6
24
Rushing Yards / Game
29
18

EPA

EPA / Play
27
19
EPA / Pass
25
11
EPA / Rush
32
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
8
Interceptions / Game
8
19
Fumbles / Game
25
3
Turnover EPA / Game
10
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
5
4th Down Efficiency
29
5
RZ Efficiency
21
8
Seahawks Offense vs Vikings Defense
Seahawks logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
7
10
Yards / Game
18
4
Passing Yards / Game
19
3
Rushing Yards / Game
1
14

EPA

EPA / Play
6
2
EPA / Pass
8
1
EPA / Rush
5
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
17
Interceptions / Game
2
20
Fumbles / Game
2
19
Turnover EPA / Game
31
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
1
4th Down Efficiency
3
6
RZ Efficiency
6
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/23
-21
L
L
U
09/27
-7
L
W
O
10/07
2
W
W
U
10/14
10
W
P
O
10/21
20
W
W
O
10/28
-10
L
L
U
11/04
15
W
W
U
11/18
-5
L
L
O
11/25
7
W
W
U
12/02
-14
L
L
U
SEA logo

Seahawks

7-3
SU
7-2-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/23
11
W
W
U
09/30
3
W
L
U
10/07
-2
L
W
O
10/14
24
W
W
U
10/28
14
W
W
U
11/04
-8
L
L
U
11/11
-5
L
W
O
11/15
3
W
P
O
11/25
3
W
W
O
12/02
27
W
W
O