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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ steelers week 2, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIN logo
MINVikings
1-0
9
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
78°F
1 mph
26
PITSteelers
1-0
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
78°F
1 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
3
6
0
9
Steelers
7
7
6
6
26

Spread

PIT logo
-8.5

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
237
335
Total Plays
60
69
Yards / Play
4.0
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.24
+0.05
Passing Yards
146
233
Comp/Att
20/38(53%)
23/35(66%)
Yards / Pass
3.8
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.31
+0.12
Rushing Yards
91
102
Rush Attempts
20
32
Yards / Rush
4.5
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
14
22
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
33%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-1.60
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-21
-10
Sack EPA
-3.50
-2.33
Penalties
11
10
Penalty Yards
131
72
Penalty EPA
-12.94
-6.35

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-8.5
Model
-11.5

Win Probability

Market76.8%
Model82.5%
Spread Pick
PIT logo
Steelers-8.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+21.5%
Cover Probability
63.7%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+318
Home nfelo
1,607
Away nfelo
1,495
Home Field
+89.0
Base HFA
+58.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
+116.9
Home QB Adjustment
+1.7
Away QB Adjustment
-115.2
Market Regression
+23.3
Final Difference
268.7
Model Spread
-11.5

Quarterbacks

C. Keenum headshot

C. Keenum

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-115.2
Value
Ptile
01/03
-0.8
46
09/12
-10.4
2
09/18
-2.1
34
09/25
-3.0
27
10/02
2.9
71
10/09
-5.1
15
10/16
8.9
94
10/23
-8.1
5
11/06
-3.5
23
11/13
-5.5
14
B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+1.7
Value
Ptile
11/20
-2.4
31
11/24
4.4
81
12/04
2.2
65
12/11
-7.4
6
12/18
0.8
55
12/25
3.7
76
01/08
-2.3
31
01/15
-2.4
30
01/22
3.9
77
09/10
0.5
55

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Steelers Defense
Vikings logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
10
11
Yards / Game
10
5
Passing Yards / Game
26
13
Rushing Yards / Game
8
13

EPA

EPA / Play
11
17
EPA / Pass
9
12
EPA / Rush
26
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
28
Interceptions / Game
6
11
Fumbles / Game
11
22
Turnover EPA / Game
23
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
13
4th Down Efficiency
31
9
RZ Efficiency
12
31
Steelers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Steelers logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
5
2
Yards / Game
3
2
Passing Yards / Game
5
17
Rushing Yards / Game
22
2

EPA

EPA / Play
5
3
EPA / Pass
6
4
EPA / Rush
19
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
26
Interceptions / Game
24
13
Fumbles / Game
3
32
Turnover EPA / Game
18
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
1
4th Down Efficiency
13
12
RZ Efficiency
18
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/06
-6
L
L
U
11/13
-6
L
L
O
11/20
6
W
W
O
11/24
-3
L
L
U
12/01
-2
L
W
U
12/11
9
W
W
O
12/18
-28
L
L
U
12/24
-13
L
L
O
01/01
28
W
W
O
09/11
10
W
W
O
PIT logo

Steelers

9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/24
21
W
W
U
12/04
10
W
W
U
12/11
7
W
W
O
12/18
4
W
W
U
12/25
4
W
L
O
01/01
3
W
L
O
01/08
18
W
W
U
01/15
2
W
W
U
01/22
-19
L
L
O
09/10
3
W
L
U