MINVikings
1-0
9
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
78°F
1 mph
26
PITSteelers
1-0
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
78°F
1 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
3
6
0
9
Steelers
7
7
6
6
26
Spread
-8.5
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
237
335
Total Plays
60
69
Yards / Play
4.0
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.24
+0.05
Passing Yards
146
233
Comp/Att
20/38(53%)
23/35(66%)
Yards / Pass
3.8
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.31
+0.12
Rushing Yards
91
102
Rush Attempts
20
32
Yards / Rush
4.5
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
22
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
33%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-1.60
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-21
-10
Sack EPA
-3.50
-2.33
Penalties
11
10
Penalty Yards
131
72
Penalty EPA
-12.94
-6.35
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-8.5
Model
-11.5
Win Probability
Market76.8%
Model82.4%
Spread Pick
Steelers-8.5
Expected Value
+21.5%
Cover Probability
63.7%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+318
Home nfelo
1,607
Away nfelo
1,494
Home Field
+87.8
Base HFA
+57.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+116.9
Home QB Adjustment
+1.7
Away QB Adjustment
-115.2
Market Regression
+23.3
Final Difference
268.5
Model Spread
-11.5
Quarterbacks
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-115.2
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+1.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
11
Yards / Game
10
5
Passing Yards / Game
26
13
Rushing Yards / Game
8
13
EPA
EPA / Play
11
17
EPA / Pass
9
12
EPA / Rush
26
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
28
Interceptions / Game
6
11
Fumbles / Game
11
22
Turnover EPA / Game
23
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
13
4th Down Efficiency
31
9
RZ Efficiency
12
31
Steelers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
2
Yards / Game
3
2
Passing Yards / Game
5
17
Rushing Yards / Game
22
2
EPA
EPA / Play
5
3
EPA / Pass
6
4
EPA / Rush
19
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
26
Interceptions / Game
24
13
Fumbles / Game
3
32
Turnover EPA / Game
18
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
1
4th Down Efficiency
13
12
RZ Efficiency
18
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Steelers
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U