MINVikings
2-1
21
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
61°F
5 mph
24
PITSteelers
2-1
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
61°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
3
3
0
15
21
Steelers
7
7
7
3
24
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
374
313
Total Plays
73
53
Yards / Play
5.1
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.18
Passing Yards
304
182
Comp/Att
30/47(64%)
18/22(82%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
8.3
EPA / Pass
+0.07
+0.17
Rushing Yards
70
131
Rush Attempts
20
29
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.00
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
19
Passing 1st downs
15
6
Rushing 1st downs
6
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
29%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
50%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.25
--
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-48
-18
Sack EPA
-8.66
-3.12
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
82
35
Penalty EPA
-6.72
-2.10
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model55.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-9
Home nfelo
1,494
Away nfelo
1,540
Home Field
+20.5
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.5
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
+17.0
Home QB Adjustment
+5.4
Away QB Adjustment
-11.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-38.4
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-11.7
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+5.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
16
Yards / Game
27
28
Passing Yards / Game
18
32
Rushing Yards / Game
25
13
EPA
EPA / Play
28
16
EPA / Pass
30
17
EPA / Rush
24
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
24
Interceptions / Game
31
8
Fumbles / Game
10
1
Turnover EPA / Game
3
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
24
4th Down Efficiency
14
27
RZ Efficiency
16
6
Steelers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
16
Yards / Game
28
10
Passing Yards / Game
29
21
Rushing Yards / Game
29
22
EPA
EPA / Play
10
6
EPA / Pass
14
9
EPA / Rush
19
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
3
Interceptions / Game
16
29
Fumbles / Game
6
5
Turnover EPA / Game
30
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
9
4th Down Efficiency
20
29
RZ Efficiency
9
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Steelers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U