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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ steelers week 4, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIN logo
MINVikings
2-1
21
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
61°F
5 mph
24
PITSteelers
2-1
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
61°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
3
3
0
15
21
Steelers
7
7
7
3
24

Spread

PIT logo
+2.5

Total

OVER
41

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
374
313
Total Plays
73
53
Yards / Play
5.1
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.18
Passing Yards
304
182
Comp/Att
30/47(64%)
18/22(82%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
8.3
EPA / Pass
+0.07
+0.17
Rushing Yards
70
131
Rush Attempts
20
29
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.00
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
23
19
Passing 1st downs
15
6
Rushing 1st downs
6
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
29%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
50%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.25
--
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-48
-18
Sack EPA
-8.66
-3.12
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
82
35
Penalty EPA
-6.72
-2.10

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model54.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-4
Home nfelo
1,498
Away nfelo
1,539
Home Field
+20.5
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.5
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
+17.0
Home QB Adjustment
+5.4
Away QB Adjustment
-11.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-29.9
Model Spread
+2.0

Quarterbacks

C. Wentz headshot

C. Wentz

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-11.7
Value
Ptile
09/11
3.3
77
09/18
1.4
62
09/25
-9.6
3
10/02
-4.6
20
10/09
4.3
82
10/13
-7.7
7
01/01
-8.4
5
01/07
3.6
74
01/05
-7.7
6
09/21
-1.4
40
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.4
Value
Ptile
11/17
-0.1
48
12/01
-3.0
28
12/08
3.0
69
12/15
4.3
76
12/22
3.1
70
12/29
-10.1
2
01/05
2.7
67
09/07
4.0
77
09/14
-7.2
7
09/21
-1.2
40

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Steelers Defense
Vikings logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
26
15
Yards / Game
29
27
Passing Yards / Game
30
30
Rushing Yards / Game
25
12

EPA

EPA / Play
28
13
EPA / Pass
31
16
EPA / Rush
17
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
24
Interceptions / Game
32
8
Fumbles / Game
15
2
Turnover EPA / Game
3
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
25
4th Down Efficiency
11
28
RZ Efficiency
13
6
Steelers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Steelers logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
15
10
Yards / Game
26
5
Passing Yards / Game
29
9
Rushing Yards / Game
26
22

EPA

EPA / Play
16
4
EPA / Pass
16
3
EPA / Rush
8
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
3
Interceptions / Game
9
24
Fumbles / Game
6
1
Turnover EPA / Game
28
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
5
4th Down Efficiency
20
25
RZ Efficiency
13
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/01
1
W
L
U
12/08
21
W
W
O
12/16
18
W
W
U
12/22
3
W
W
O
12/29
2
W
W
O
01/05
-22
L
L
U
01/13
-18
L
L
U
09/08
3
W
W
O
09/14
-16
L
L
U
09/21
38
W
W
O
PIT logo

Steelers

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/01
6
W
W
O
12/08
13
W
W
U
12/15
-14
L
L
U
12/21
-17
L
L
O
12/25
-19
L
L
U
01/04
-2
L
W
U
01/11
-14
L
L
U
09/07
2
W
L
O
09/14
-14
L
L
O
09/21
7
W
W
U