MINVikings
6-0
17
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
52°F
5 mph
27
PITSteelers
4-2
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
52°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
7
3
7
17
Steelers
3
7
3
2
15
Spread
-6
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
386
259
Total Plays
78
49
Yards / Play
4.9
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.03
Passing Yards
297
153
Comp/Att
34/51(67%)
14/26(54%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
5.9
EPA / Pass
-0.28
-0.12
Rushing Yards
89
106
Rush Attempts
23
20
Yards / Rush
3.9
5.3
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
14
Passing 1st downs
16
5
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
50%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
9
4
3rd Down Attempts
18
12
Red Zone %
20%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-21.70
-4.19
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-37
-22
Sack EPA
-15.62
-3.99
Penalties
11
3
Penalty Yards
78
15
Penalty EPA
-8.86
-1.77
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model68.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+108
Home nfelo
1,613
Away nfelo
1,603
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+1.4
Home QB Adjustment
+24.5
Away QB Adjustment
+23.1
Market Regression
+45.8
Final Difference
134.5
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
B. Favre
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+23.1
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+24.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
11
Yards / Game
6
6
Passing Yards / Game
15
31
Rushing Yards / Game
11
5
EPA
EPA / Play
5
22
EPA / Pass
3
13
EPA / Rush
32
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
2
Interceptions / Game
1
25
Fumbles / Game
24
16
Turnover EPA / Game
25
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
28
4th Down Efficiency
8
30
RZ Efficiency
3
6
Steelers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
8
Yards / Game
7
4
Passing Yards / Game
3
24
Rushing Yards / Game
20
1
EPA
EPA / Play
7
3
EPA / Pass
10
12
EPA / Rush
14
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
19
Interceptions / Game
10
27
Fumbles / Game
19
5
Turnover EPA / Game
13
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
2
4th Down Efficiency
4
4
RZ Efficiency
26
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
5-1-4
O/U
Steelers
8-2
SU
4-6
ATS
4-2-4
O/U