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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ steelers week 7, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIN logo
MINVikings
6-0
17
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
52°F
5 mph
27
PITSteelers
4-2
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
52°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
7
3
7
17
Steelers
3
7
3
2
15

Spread

PIT logo
-6

Total

UNDER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
386
259
Total Plays
78
49
Yards / Play
4.9
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.03
Passing Yards
297
153
Comp/Att
34/51(67%)
14/26(54%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
5.9
EPA / Pass
-0.28
-0.12
Rushing Yards
89
106
Rush Attempts
23
20
Yards / Rush
3.9
5.3
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
21
14
Passing 1st downs
16
5
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
50%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
9
4
3rd Down Attempts
18
12
Red Zone %
20%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-21.70
-4.19
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-37
-22
Sack EPA
-15.62
-3.99
Penalties
11
3
Penalty Yards
78
15
Penalty EPA
-8.86
-1.77

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model68.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+105
Home nfelo
1,611
Away nfelo
1,602
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+1.4
Home QB Adjustment
+24.5
Away QB Adjustment
+23.1
Market Regression
+45.3
Final Difference
134.0
Model Spread
-5.5

Quarterbacks

B. Favre headshot

B. Favre

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+23.1
Value
Ptile
12/07
-4.0
22
12/14
-0.2
51
12/21
-9.0
4
12/28
-4.3
19
09/13
-3.7
25
09/20
1.1
56
09/27
0.6
54
10/05
9.8
96
10/11
0.3
52
10/18
6.1
86
B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+24.5
Value
Ptile
12/28
-3.6
24
01/11
0.0
52
01/18
-1.8
38
02/01
-0.9
46
09/10
2.7
67
09/20
1.7
61
09/27
4.7
80
10/04
6.4
87
10/11
2.1
64
10/18
5.2
83

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Steelers Defense
Vikings logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
3
11
Yards / Game
6
6
Passing Yards / Game
15
31
Rushing Yards / Game
11
5

EPA

EPA / Play
5
22
EPA / Pass
3
13
EPA / Rush
32
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
2
Interceptions / Game
1
25
Fumbles / Game
24
16
Turnover EPA / Game
25
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
28
4th Down Efficiency
8
30
RZ Efficiency
3
6
Steelers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Steelers logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
12
8
Yards / Game
7
4
Passing Yards / Game
3
24
Rushing Yards / Game
20
1

EPA

EPA / Play
7
3
EPA / Pass
10
12
EPA / Rush
14
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
19
Interceptions / Game
10
27
Fumbles / Game
19
5
Turnover EPA / Game
13
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
2
4th Down Efficiency
4
4
RZ Efficiency
26
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
5-1-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/14
21
W
W
P
12/21
-7
L
L
P
12/28
1
W
L
P
01/04
-12
L
L
P
09/13
14
W
W
O
09/20
14
W
W
U
09/27
3
W
L
O
10/05
7
W
W
O
10/11
28
W
W
O
10/18
2
W
L
O
PIT logo

Steelers

8-2
SU
4-6
ATS
4-2-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/28
31
W
W
P
01/11
11
W
W
P
01/18
9
W
W
P
02/01
4
W
L
P
09/10
3
W
L
U
09/20
-3
L
L
U
09/27
-3
L
L
O
10/04
10
W
W
O
10/11
8
W
L
O
10/18
13
W
L
O