MINVikings
8-6
23
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
06
HOUTexans
12-2
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
6
3
7
23
Texans
3
0
3
0
6
Spread
+7.5
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
345
187
Total Plays
73
53
Yards / Play
4.7
3.5
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.31
Passing Yards
171
153
Comp/Att
16/30(53%)
18/33(55%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
4.6
EPA / Pass
+0.07
-0.29
Rushing Yards
174
34
Rush Attempts
42
16
Yards / Rush
4.1
2.1
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.57
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
11
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
11
1
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
50%
9%
3rd Down Conversions
9
1
3rd Down Attempts
18
11
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-5.43
-8.02
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-3
-25
Sack EPA
-5.43
-8.91
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
52
60
Penalty EPA
-7.61
-9.28
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model78.4%
Spread Pick
Texans-7.5
Expected Value
+9.8%
Cover Probability
57.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+259
Home nfelo
1,635
Away nfelo
1,469
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+8.2
Home QB Adjustment
+3.4
Away QB Adjustment
-4.7
Market Regression
+4.8
Final Difference
223.9
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
C. Ponder
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-4.7
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+3.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
9
Yards / Game
20
7
Passing Yards / Game
30
26
Rushing Yards / Game
3
6
EPA
EPA / Play
14
6
EPA / Pass
22
4
EPA / Rush
4
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
28
Interceptions / Game
8
16
Fumbles / Game
21
8
Turnover EPA / Game
20
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
2
4th Down Efficiency
16
3
RZ Efficiency
17
10
Texans Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
16
Yards / Game
6
15
Passing Yards / Game
20
30
Rushing Yards / Game
8
10
EPA
EPA / Play
11
15
EPA / Pass
9
24
EPA / Rush
14
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
21
Interceptions / Game
11
29
Fumbles / Game
1
9
Turnover EPA / Game
28
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
24
4th Down Efficiency
10
24
RZ Efficiency
14
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Texans
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U