nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ texans week 16, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

MIN logo
MINVikings
8-6
23
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
6
HOUTexans
12-2
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
6
3
7
23
Texans
3
0
3
0
6

Spread

MIN logo
+7.5

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
345
187
Total Plays
73
53
Yards / Play
4.7
3.5
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.31
Passing Yards
171
153
Comp/Att
16/30(53%)
18/33(55%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
4.6
EPA / Pass
+0.07
-0.29
Rushing Yards
174
34
Rush Attempts
42
16
Yards / Rush
4.1
2.1
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.57
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
22
11
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
11
1
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
50%
9%
3rd Down Conversions
9
1
3rd Down Attempts
18
11
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-5.43
-8.02
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-3
-25
Sack EPA
-5.43
-8.91
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
52
60
Penalty EPA
-7.61
-9.28

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-9.5

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
HOU logo
Texans-7.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+9.8%
Cover Probability
57.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+262
Home nfelo
1,635
Away nfelo
1,466
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+8.2
Home QB Adjustment
+3.4
Away QB Adjustment
-4.7
Market Regression
+4.7
Final Difference
225.4
Model Spread
-9.5

Quarterbacks

C. Ponder headshot

C. Ponder

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-4.7
Value
Ptile
10/07
2.7
67
10/14
0.5
53
10/21
-9.4
3
10/25
-4.1
24
11/04
-9.3
3
11/11
3.8
74
11/25
-4.1
24
12/02
-4.4
22
12/09
-5.4
16
12/16
-0.7
44
M. Schaub headshot

M. Schaub

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+3.4
Value
Ptile
10/08
-0.9
43
10/14
-6.6
11
10/21
3.0
69
11/04
2.9
68
11/11
-6.1
12
11/18
14.3
99
11/22
-0.6
46
12/02
2.2
63
12/10
-4.0
25
12/16
1.2
57

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Texans Defense
Vikings logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
17
9
Yards / Game
20
7
Passing Yards / Game
30
26
Rushing Yards / Game
3
6

EPA

EPA / Play
14
6
EPA / Pass
22
4
EPA / Rush
4
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
28
Interceptions / Game
8
16
Fumbles / Game
21
8
Turnover EPA / Game
20
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
2
4th Down Efficiency
16
3
RZ Efficiency
17
10
Texans Offense vs Vikings Defense
Texans logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
11
16
Yards / Game
6
15
Passing Yards / Game
20
30
Rushing Yards / Game
8
10

EPA

EPA / Play
11
15
EPA / Pass
9
24
EPA / Rush
14
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
21
Interceptions / Game
11
29
Fumbles / Game
1
9
Turnover EPA / Game
28
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
24
4th Down Efficiency
10
24
RZ Efficiency
14
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/07
23
W
W
U
10/14
-12
L
L
O
10/21
7
W
P
U
10/25
-19
L
L
O
11/04
-10
L
L
O
11/11
10
W
W
O
11/25
-18
L
L
U
12/02
-9
L
L
U
12/09
7
W
W
U
12/16
14
W
W
O
HOU logo

Texans

8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/08
6
W
L
U
10/14
-18
L
L
O
10/21
30
W
W
O
11/04
12
W
W
U
11/11
7
W
W
U
11/18
6
W
L
O
11/22
3
W
L
O
12/02
14
W
W
U
12/10
-28
L
L
O
12/16
12
W
W
U