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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ titans week 1, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIN logo
MINVikings
-
25
TBD
Nissan Stadium
76°F
5 mph
16
TENTitans
-
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
76°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
0
6
7
13
Titans
3
7
0
6
16

Spread

MIN logo
-2.5

Total

OVER
40

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
301
316
Total Plays
61
66
Yards / Play
4.9
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.30
Passing Yards
--
252
Comp/Att
18/33(55%)
25/42(60%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.29
+0.02
Rushing Yards
65
64
Rush Attempts
28
22
Yards / Rush
2.3
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.85
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
15
19
Passing 1st downs
12
16
Rushing 1st downs
3
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
43%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-24.38
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-19
Sack EPA
--
-3.10
Penalties
3
2
Penalty Yards
39
--
Penalty EPA
-3.02
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-37
Home nfelo
1,425
Away nfelo
1,546
Home Field
+79.5
Base HFA
+59.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.4
Home QB Adjustment
+0.4
Away QB Adjustment
-4.0
Market Regression
+22.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

S. Hill headshot

S. Hill

Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
-4.0
Value
Ptile
12/26
2.3
64
01/02
3.2
70
09/07
-7.7
9
11/16
-0.8
45
11/23
-6.4
13
11/30
1.4
60
12/07
-1.8
37
12/11
-4.8
21
12/21
3.3
73
12/28
-3.8
27
M. Mariota headshot

M. Mariota

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
+0.4
Value
Ptile
09/27
0.4
53
10/11
-0.4
48
10/18
-7.9
4
11/08
10.8
98
11/15
-1.3
41
11/19
-1.1
43
11/29
-4.2
20
12/06
9.1
95
12/13
-7.1
7
12/20
-8.0
4

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Titans Defense
Vikings logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
23
16
Yards / Game
28
20
Passing Yards / Game
30
24
Rushing Yards / Game
32
4

EPA

EPA / Play
23
20
EPA / Pass
14
23
EPA / Rush
32
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
25
Interceptions / Game
2
20
Fumbles / Game
22
30
Turnover EPA / Game
29
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
8
4th Down Efficiency
22
18
RZ Efficiency
29
7
Titans Offense vs Vikings Defense
Titans logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
14
5
Yards / Game
11
3
Passing Yards / Game
31
4
Rushing Yards / Game
3
19

EPA

EPA / Play
13
4
EPA / Pass
13
2
EPA / Rush
11
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
10
Interceptions / Game
12
14
Fumbles / Game
16
2
Turnover EPA / Game
17
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
15
4th Down Efficiency
30
2
RZ Efficiency
1
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

6-4
SU
8-2
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/08
3
W
W
U
11/15
16
W
W
P
11/22
-17
L
L
U
11/29
10
W
W
U
12/06
-31
L
L
O
12/10
-3
L
W
U
12/20
21
W
W
O
12/27
32
W
W
O
01/03
7
W
W
U
01/10
-1
L
W
U
TEN logo

Titans

2-8
SU
1-8-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/01
-14
L
L
U
11/08
6
W
W
O
11/15
-17
L
L
U
11/19
-6
L
L
U
11/29
-3
L
L
P
12/06
3
W
P
O
12/13
-22
L
L
U
12/20
-17
L
L
O
12/27
-28
L
L
O
01/03
-6
L
L
O