MINVikings
-
25
TBD
Nissan Stadium
76°F
5 mph
16
TENTitans
-
TBD
Nissan Stadium
76°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
0
6
7
13
Titans
3
7
0
6
16
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
301
316
Total Plays
61
66
Yards / Play
4.9
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.30
Passing Yards
--
252
Comp/Att
18/33(55%)
25/42(60%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.29
+0.02
Rushing Yards
65
64
Rush Attempts
28
22
Yards / Rush
2.3
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.85
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
19
Passing 1st downs
12
16
Rushing 1st downs
3
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
43%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-24.38
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-19
Sack EPA
--
-3.10
Penalties
3
2
Penalty Yards
39
--
Penalty EPA
-3.02
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-39
Home nfelo
1,425
Away nfelo
1,547
Home Field
+78.5
Base HFA
+58.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.4
Home QB Adjustment
+0.4
Away QB Adjustment
-4.0
Market Regression
+22.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
S. Hill
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
-4.0
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
16
Yards / Game
28
20
Passing Yards / Game
30
24
Rushing Yards / Game
32
4
EPA
EPA / Play
23
20
EPA / Pass
14
23
EPA / Rush
32
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
25
Interceptions / Game
2
20
Fumbles / Game
22
30
Turnover EPA / Game
29
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
8
4th Down Efficiency
22
18
RZ Efficiency
29
7
Titans Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
5
Yards / Game
11
3
Passing Yards / Game
31
4
Rushing Yards / Game
3
19
EPA
EPA / Play
13
4
EPA / Pass
13
2
EPA / Rush
11
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
10
Interceptions / Game
12
14
Fumbles / Game
16
2
Turnover EPA / Game
17
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
15
4th Down Efficiency
30
2
RZ Efficiency
1
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
6-4
SU
8-2
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Titans
2-8
SU
1-8-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U