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nfelo

v4.0.0
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  • Scoreboard
  • QB EPA
Model
  • Games
  • Confidence Pool
  • Betting Card
  • Model Performance
Teams
  • Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
  • Strength of Schedule
  • Win Totals
QBs
  • QB Rankings
  • Era Adjusted Elo
Tools & More
  • Receiving Leaders
  • Head Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
  • NFL Odds Calculator
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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Model

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Matthew Stafford headshot

Matthew Stafford

2009 - 2025

OverviewCareer StatsSeason Stats

Bio

Career Summary

nfelo QB Value

Career Stats

Season
Team
Starts
EPA
EPA / DB
Pass Yds
Pass TD
INT
Rush Yds
Rush TD
2009
DET logo
DET
10
-68
-0.16
2,267
13
20
110
2
2010
DET logo
DET
3
+1
+0.01
535
6
1
11
1
2011
DET logo
DET
16
+79
+0.10
5,100
41
16
83
0
2012
DET logo
DET
16
+36
+0.04
4,967
20
17
130
4
2013
DET logo
DET
16
+64
+0.09
4,650
29
19
81
2
2014
DET logo
DET
16
+52
+0.07
4,257
22
12
111
2
2015
DET logo
DET
16
+33
+0.05
4,262
32
13
175
1
2016
DET logo
DET
16
+121
+0.17
4,327
24
10
216
2
2017
DET logo
DET
16
+55
+0.08
4,446
29
10
107
0
2018
DET logo
DET
16
+29
+0.04
3,777
21
11
80
0
2019
DET logo
DET
8
+75
+0.22
2,499
19
5
73
0
2020
DET logo
DET
16
+94
+0.15
4,084
26
10
119
0
2021
LAR logo
LAR
17
+133
+0.20
4,886
41
17
59
0
2022
LAR logo
LAR
9
-25
-0.07
2,087
10
8
17
1
2023
LAR logo
LAR
15
+65
+0.11
3,965
24
11
75
0
2024
LAR logo
LAR
16
+73
+0.12
3,762
20
8
59
0
2025
LAR logo
LAR
17
+150
+0.23
4,707
46
8
22
0