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  4. 2012
ATL logo

Atlanta Falcons

2012 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
14-4
nfelo Rating
15649th
Point Diff / Game
+6.65th
Net EPA / Play
+0.1126th

2012 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
KC logo
KC@
W
40-24
+16
-2.5
W
27
2
DEN logo
DEN
W
27-21
+6
-3
W
-4
3
LAC logo
LAC@
W
27-03
+24
+3
W
15
4
CAR logo
CAR
W
30-28
+2
-7
L
-18
5
WAS logo
WAS@
W
24-17
+7
-3
W
17
6
OAK logo
OAK
W
23-20
+3
-10
L
-25
7BYE WEEK
8
PHI logo
PHI@
W
30-17
+13
+3
W
17
9
DAL logo
DAL
W
19-13
+6
-4
W
-3
10
NO logo
NO@
L
27-31
-4
-1.5
L
-1
11
ARI logo
ARI
W
23-19
+4
-9.5
L
-36
12
TB logo
TB@
W
24-23
+1
-1
P
11
13
NO logo
NO
W
23-13
+10
-3.5
W
1
14
CAR logo
CAR@
L
20-30
-10
-3
L
-7
15
NYG logo
NYG
W
34-00
+34
-1
W
20
16
DET logo
DET@
W
31-18
+13
-4
W
29
17
TB logo
TB
L
17-22
-5
-3
L
-78
18BYE WEEK
19
SEA logo
SEA
W
30-28
+2
-3
L
15
20
SF logo
SF
L
24-28
-4
+4
P
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.09
9th
EPA / Pass
+0.23
3rd
EPA / Rush
-0.14
30th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.02
10th
EPA / Pass
+0.01
12th
EPA / Rush
-0.02
26th
Sack EPA
-2.47
3rd
Turnover EPA
-5.35
23rd
Point Differential
+6.6
5th
Points For
26.3
8th
Points Against
19.7
6th
Total Yards
377.8
6th
Passing Yards
272.5
2nd
Rushing Yards
91.4
27th
Total Yards Allowed
372.9
24th
Passing Allowed
211.4
23rd
Rushing Allowed
124.6
19th

Conversions For

3rd Down
46%
2nd
4th Down
22%
32nd
Red Zone
58%
9th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
40%
26th
4th Down
43%
9th
Red Zone
50%
7th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.2
8th
Created
1.9
6th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.9
17th
Created
1.2
6th

Fumbles

Lost
0.3
2nd
Created
0.7
10th