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  4. 2017
ATL logo

Atlanta Falcons

2017 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
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    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
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    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
11-7
nfelo Rating
16045th
Point Diff / Game
+2.611th
Net EPA / Play
+0.05811th

2017 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
CHI logo
CHI@
W
23-17
+6
-7
L
9
2
GB logo
GB
W
34-23
+11
-3
W
2
3
DET logo
DET@
W
30-26
+4
-3
W
-4
4
BUF logo
BUF
L
17-23
-6
-8
L
-18
5BYE WEEK
6
MIA logo
MIA
L
17-20
-3
-13.5
L
-15
7
NE logo
NE@
L
07-23
-16
+3
L
-5
8
NYJ logo
NYJ@
W
25-20
+5
-6.5
L
8
9
CAR logo
CAR@
L
17-20
-3
-3
L
0
10
DAL logo
DAL
W
27-07
+20
-3.5
W
18
11
SEA logo
SEA@
W
34-31
+3
-1
W
34
12
TB logo
TB
W
34-20
+14
-10
W
14
13
MIN logo
MIN
L
09-14
-5
-2
L
-31
14
NO logo
NO
W
20-17
+3
-2.5
W
-8
15
TB logo
TB@
W
24-21
+3
-7
L
-3
16
NO logo
NO@
L
13-23
-10
+5.5
L
-39
17
CAR logo
CAR
W
22-10
+12
-5
W
26
18
LAR logo
LAR@
W
26-13
+13
+6
W
8
19
PHI logo
PHI@
L
10-15
-5
-2.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.04
7th
EPA / Pass
+0.13
7th
EPA / Rush
-0.09
20th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.01
21st
EPA / Pass
+0.02
18th
EPA / Rush
-0.07
19th
Sack EPA
-2.86
6th
Turnover EPA
-4.16
27th
Point Differential
+2.6
11th
Points For
21.6
15th
Points Against
19.1
6th
Total Yards
357.8
11th
Passing Yards
213.4
10th
Rushing Yards
114.3
14th
Total Yards Allowed
321.7
8th
Passing Allowed
209.1
20th
Rushing Allowed
104.2
9th

Conversions For

3rd Down
43%
5th
4th Down
38%
24th
Red Zone
48%
26th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
39%
17th
4th Down
65%
29th
Red Zone
44%
2nd

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.2
11th
Created
0.9
28th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.7
8th
Created
0.4
30th

Fumbles

Lost
0.5
13th
Created
0.5
18th