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ATL logo

Atlanta Falcons

2018 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
7-9
nfelo Rating
150716th
Point Diff / Game
-0.617th
Net EPA / Play
-0.01117th

2018 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
PHI logo
PHI@
L
12-18
-6
-14
2
CAR logo
CAR
W
31-24
+7
-5.5
W
30
3
NO logo
NO
L
37-43
-6
-1.5
L
1
4
CIN logo
CIN
L
36-37
-1
-3.5
L
-10
5
PIT logo
PIT@
L
17-41
-24
+3.5
L
-22
6
TB logo
TB
W
34-29
+5
-3
W
8
7
NYG logo
NYG
W
23-20
+3
-4.5
L
-17
8BYE WEEK
9
WAS logo
WAS@
W
38-14
+24
+1.5
W
16
10
CLE logo
CLE@
L
16-28
-12
-5.5
L
-8
11
DAL logo
DAL
L
19-22
-3
-3.5
L
-14
12
NO logo
NO@
L
17-31
-14
+12.5
L
-18
13
BAL logo
BAL
L
16-26
-10
-2.5
L
-24
14
GB logo
GB@
L
20-34
-14
+4
L
-8
15
ARI logo
ARI
W
40-14
+26
-9
W
11
16
CAR logo
CAR@
W
24-10
+14
-3
W
8
17
TB logo
TB@
W
34-32
+2
-2.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.07
5th
EPA / Pass
+0.16
6th
EPA / Rush
-0.09
24th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.08
30th
EPA / Pass
+0.08
23rd
EPA / Rush
+0.08
32nd
Sack EPA
-5.65
27th
Turnover EPA
-5.27
20th
Point Differential
-0.6
17th
Points For
25.9
9th
Points Against
26.4
25th
Total Yards
389.4
6th
Passing Yards
274.1
3rd
Rushing Yards
98.3
27th
Total Yards Allowed
384.8
28th
Passing Allowed
230.4
26th
Rushing Allowed
125.2
25th

Conversions For

3rd Down
45%
5th
4th Down
50%
19th
Red Zone
63%
11th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
48%
31st
4th Down
67%
28th
Red Zone
69%
27th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.2
13th
Created
1.1
20th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.4
3rd
Created
0.9
11th

Fumbles

Lost
0.8
29th
Created
0.2
31st