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  4. 2022
ATL logo

Atlanta Falcons

2022 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
7-10
nfelo Rating
135428th
Point Diff / Game
-1.219th
Net EPA / Play
-0.02820th

2022 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
NO logo
NO
L
26-27
-1
+5.5
W
15
2
LAR logo
LAR@
L
27-31
-4
+10
W
1
3
SEA logo
SEA@
W
27-23
+4
+1
W
20
4
CLE logo
CLE
W
23-20
+3
+1
W
-5
5
TB logo
TB@
L
15-21
-6
+10
W
6
6
SF logo
SF
W
28-14
+14
+3
W
30
7
CIN logo
CIN@
L
17-35
-18
+6.5
L
-11
8
CAR logo
CAR
W
37-34
+3
-4
L
-11
9
LAC logo
LAC
L
17-20
-3
+2.5
L
-7
10
CAR logo
CAR@
L
15-25
-10
-2.5
L
-11
11
CHI logo
CHI
W
27-24
+3
-2
W
4
12
WAS logo
WAS@
L
13-19
-6
+3.5
L
-3
13
PIT logo
PIT
L
16-19
-3
+1
L
-72
14BYE WEEK
15
NO logo
NO@
L
18-21
-3
+5.5
W
-1
16
BAL logo
BAL@
L
09-17
-8
+6.5
L
-2
17
ARI logo
ARI
W
20-19
+1
-6.5
L
-5
18
TB logo
TB
W
30-17
+13
-6
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.00
14th
EPA / Pass
-0.03
19th
EPA / Rush
+0.02
8th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.02
28th
EPA / Pass
+0.13
31st
EPA / Rush
-0.01
21st
Sack EPA
-3.70
12th
Turnover EPA
-4.61
24th
Point Differential
-1.2
19th
Points For
21.5
15th
Points Against
22.7
21st
Total Yards
319.0
24th
Passing Yards
138.6
31st
Rushing Yards
160.0
2nd
Total Yards Allowed
362.6
26th
Passing Allowed
145.1
1st
Rushing Allowed
130.5
23rd

Conversions For

3rd Down
42%
9th
4th Down
50%
16th
Red Zone
56%
14th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
46%
31st
4th Down
41%
5th
Red Zone
55%
13th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.1
8th
Created
1.1
25th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.5
5th
Created
0.6
24th

Fumbles

Lost
0.6
20th
Created
0.5
20th