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  4. 2025
ATL logo

Atlanta Falcons

2025 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
4-9
nfelo Rating
142823rd
Point Diff / Game
-4.723rd
Net EPA / Play
-0.09023rd

2025 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
TB logo
TB
L
20-23
-3
+1.5
L
-1
2
MIN logo
MIN@
W
22-06
+16
+3.5
W
5
3
CAR logo
CAR@
L
00-30
-30
-5.5
L
-21
4
WAS logo
WAS
W
34-27
+7
-2.5
W
27
5BYE WEEK
6
BUF logo
BUF
W
24-14
+10
+3.5
W
13
7
SF logo
SF@
L
10-20
-10
-1
L
48
8
MIA logo
MIA
L
10-34
-24
-7
L
-101
9
NE logo
NE@
L
23-24
-1
+5.5
W
13
10
IND logo
IND@
L
25-31
-6
+6.5
W
-18
11
CAR logo
CAR
L
27-30
-3
-4
L
40
12
NO logo
NO@
W
24-10
+14
+1.5
W
4
13
NYJ logo
NYJ@
L
24-27
-3
-3
L
-11
14
SEA logo
SEA
L
09-37
-28
+7
L
-54
15
TB logo
TB@
12/11
-
+4.5
-
-
16
ARI logo
ARI@
12/21
-
-
-
17
LAR logo
LAR
12/29
-
-
-
18
NO logo
NO
01/04
-
-
-

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.04
27th
EPA / Pass
-0.06
24th
EPA / Rush
-0.02
19th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.05
22nd
EPA / Pass
-0.03
12th
EPA / Rush
+0.03
27th
Sack EPA
-3.21
10th
Turnover EPA
-4.77
19th
Point Differential
-4.7
23rd
Points For
19.4
27th
Points Against
24.1
20th
Total Yards
330.3
16th
Passing Yards
173.9
21st
Rushing Yards
123.8
12th
Total Yards Allowed
322.8
14th
Passing Allowed
191.8
18th
Rushing Allowed
131.0
23rd

Conversions For

3rd Down
31%
31st
4th Down
48%
22nd
Red Zone
58%
17th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
40%
18th
4th Down
60%
20th
Red Zone
55%
12th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.2
14th
Created
1.2
19th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.5
4th
Created
0.8
12th

Fumbles

Lost
0.7
28th
Created
0.4
21st