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  4. 2009
BUF logo

Buffalo Bills

2009 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
6-10
nfelo Rating
135427th
Point Diff / Game
-4.323rd
Net EPA / Play
-0.08224th

2009 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
NE logo
NE@
L
24-25
-1
+13
W
11
2
TB logo
TB
W
33-20
+13
-4
W
12
3
NO logo
NO
L
07-27
-20
+6
L
-33
4
MIA logo
MIA@
L
10-38
-28
+1
L
-25
5
CLE logo
CLE
L
03-06
-3
-5.5
L
-11
6
NYJ logo
NYJ@
W
16-13
+3
+9
W
-20
7
CAR logo
CAR@
W
20-09
+11
+7
W
11
8
HOU logo
HOU
L
10-31
-21
+3.5
L
7
9BYE WEEK
10
TEN logo
TEN@
L
17-41
-24
+7.5
L
-56
11
JAX logo
JAX@
L
15-18
-3
+8.5
W
10
12
MIA logo
MIA
W
31-14
+17
+3.5
W
18
13
NYJ logo
NYJ
L
13-19
-6
+3.5
L
-11
14
KC logo
KC@
W
16-10
+6
-2.5
W
13
15
NE logo
NE
L
10-17
-7
+7
P
74
16
ATL logo
ATL@
L
03-31
-28
+8
L
-101
17
IND logo
IND
W
30-07
+23
-8
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.12
28th
EPA / Pass
-0.19
27th
EPA / Rush
-0.09
17th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.03
13th
EPA / Pass
-0.15
2nd
EPA / Rush
+0.06
32nd
Sack EPA
-3.92
20th
Turnover EPA
-6.64
16th
Point Differential
-4.3
23rd
Points For
16.1
28th
Points Against
20.4
14th
Total Yards
273.9
30th
Passing Yards
147.5
27th
Rushing Yards
116.7
15th
Total Yards Allowed
340.8
19th
Passing Allowed
163.4
7th
Rushing Allowed
157.1
31st

Conversions For

3rd Down
26%
32nd
4th Down
47%
19th
Red Zone
32%
32nd

Conversions Against

3rd Down
40%
24th
4th Down
54%
23rd
Red Zone
54%
20th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.8
18th
Created
2.2
5th

Interceptions

Thrown
1.2
24th
Created
1.8
2nd

Fumbles

Lost
0.6
8th
Created
0.4
30th