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  4. 2012
BUF logo

Buffalo Bills

2012 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
6-10
nfelo Rating
141326th
Point Diff / Game
-5.725th
Net EPA / Play
-0.09825th

2012 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
NYJ logo
NYJ@
L
28-48
-20
+3
L
-10
2
KC logo
KC
W
35-17
+18
-3
W
16
3
CLE logo
CLE@
W
24-14
+10
-3
W
33
4
NE logo
NE
L
28-52
-24
+3.5
L
-14
5
SF logo
SF@
L
03-45
-42
+10
L
-20
6
ARI logo
ARI@
W
19-16
+3
+5
W
4
7
TEN logo
TEN
L
34-35
-1
-4.5
L
-14
8BYE WEEK
9
HOU logo
HOU@
L
09-21
-12
+11
L
-4
10
NE logo
NE@
L
31-37
-6
+13.5
W
12
11
MIA logo
MIA
W
19-14
+5
-2.5
W
-3
12
IND logo
IND@
L
13-20
-7
+2
L
-16
13
JAX logo
JAX
W
34-18
+16
-6
W
9
14
LAR logo
LAR
L
12-15
-3
-3.5
L
-11
15
SEA logo
SEA
L
17-50
-33
+4.5
L
-22
16
MIA logo
MIA@
L
10-24
-14
+5
L
-14
17
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
28-09
+19
-3.5
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.02
20th
EPA / Pass
-0.03
21st
EPA / Rush
-0.02
10th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.08
28th
EPA / Pass
+0.04
15th
EPA / Rush
+0.10
32nd
Sack EPA
-3.68
16th
Turnover EPA
-8.81
5th
Point Differential
-5.7
25th
Points For
21.5
21st
Points Against
27.2
26th
Total Yards
342.9
19th
Passing Yards
159.9
28th
Rushing Yards
138.6
6th
Total Yards Allowed
363.1
21st
Passing Allowed
181.2
7th
Rushing Allowed
145.9
31st

Conversions For

3rd Down
39%
13th
4th Down
63%
7th
Red Zone
50%
22nd

Conversions Against

3rd Down
44%
32nd
4th Down
50%
18th
Red Zone
69%
31st

Turnovers / Game

Committed
2.1
28th
Created
1.3
23rd

Interceptions

Thrown
1.1
22nd
Created
0.8
20th

Fumbles

Lost
1.1
31st
Created
0.6
20th