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  4. 2019
BUF logo

Buffalo Bills

2019 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
10-7
nfelo Rating
144422nd
Point Diff / Game
+3.19th
Net EPA / Play
+0.0709th

2019 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
NYJ logo
NYJ@
W
17-16
+1
+3
W
7
2
NYG logo
NYG@
W
28-14
+14
-1
W
43
3
CIN logo
CIN
W
21-17
+4
-6
L
-1
4
NE logo
NE
L
10-16
-6
+7
W
-4
5
TEN logo
TEN@
W
14-07
+7
+3
W
19
6BYE WEEK
7
MIA logo
MIA
W
31-21
+10
-17
L
-3
8
PHI logo
PHI
L
13-31
-18
-1
L
-16
9
WAS logo
WAS
W
24-09
+15
-10.5
W
10
10
CLE logo
CLE@
L
16-19
-3
+3
P
5
11
MIA logo
MIA@
W
37-20
+17
-7
W
27
12
DEN logo
DEN
W
20-03
+17
-4
W
10
13
DAL logo
DAL@
W
26-15
+11
+6.5
W
13
14
BAL logo
BAL
L
17-24
-7
+6.5
L
-24
15
PIT logo
PIT@
W
17-10
+7
+1
W
20
16
NE logo
NE@
L
17-24
-7
+6.5
L
3
17
NYJ logo
NYJ
L
06-13
-7
+1
L
-76
18
HOU logo
HOU@
L
19-22
-3
+2.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.05
20th
EPA / Pass
-0.03
20th
EPA / Rush
-0.03
10th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.12
4th
EPA / Pass
-0.12
5th
EPA / Rush
-0.05
20th
Sack EPA
-4.48
17th
Turnover EPA
-4.91
23rd
Point Differential
+3.1
9th
Points For
19.6
23rd
Points Against
16.5
2nd
Total Yards
336.1
24th
Passing Yards
190.0
21st
Rushing Yards
131.1
7th
Total Yards Allowed
302.6
4th
Passing Allowed
172.2
5th
Rushing Allowed
105.5
11th

Conversions For

3rd Down
37%
20th
4th Down
42%
22nd
Red Zone
55%
20th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
36%
9th
4th Down
36%
6th
Red Zone
56%
14th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.2
14th
Created
1.4
16th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.7
15th
Created
0.8
12th

Fumbles

Lost
0.5
15th
Created
0.5
18th