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  4. 2023
BUF logo

Buffalo Bills

2023 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
12-7
nfelo Rating
17281st
Point Diff / Game
+7.94th
Net EPA / Play
+0.1384th

2023 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
NYJ logo
NYJ@
L
16-22
-6
-2.5
L
-23
2
OAK logo
OAK
W
38-10
+28
-7
W
22
3
WAS logo
WAS@
W
37-03
+34
-5
W
34
4
MIA logo
MIA
W
48-20
+28
-3
W
24
5
JAX logo
JAX
L
20-25
-5
-5
L
-13
6
NYG logo
NYG
W
14-09
+5
-14.5
L
-15
7
NE logo
NE@
L
25-29
-4
-7.5
L
-7
8
TB logo
TB
W
24-18
+6
-10
L
-11
9
CIN logo
CIN@
L
18-24
-6
+1.5
L
-10
10
DEN logo
DEN
L
22-24
-2
-7.5
L
-18
11
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
32-06
+26
-8.5
W
23
12
PHI logo
PHI@
L
34-37
-3
+2.5
L
13
13BYE WEEK
14
KC logo
KC@
W
20-17
+3
+2
W
-4
15
DAL logo
DAL
W
31-10
+21
-2.5
W
48
16
LAC logo
LAC@
W
24-22
+2
-13
L
-8
17
NE logo
NE
W
27-21
+6
-15
L
-13
18
MIA logo
MIA@
W
21-14
+7
-2.5
W
44
19
PIT logo
PIT
W
31-17
+14
-10
W
18
20
KC logo
KC
L
24-27
-3
-2.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.08
3rd
EPA / Pass
+0.13
6th
EPA / Rush
+0.08
1st
Def. EPA / Play
-0.06
11th
EPA / Pass
-0.11
6th
EPA / Rush
-0.03
23rd
Sack EPA
-2.16
1st
Turnover EPA
-4.59
22nd
Point Differential
+7.9
4th
Points For
26.6
6th
Points Against
18.7
3rd
Total Yards
374.1
5th
Passing Yards
180.1
19th
Rushing Yards
135.4
5th
Total Yards Allowed
310.9
8th
Passing Allowed
177.5
13th
Rushing Allowed
112.3
15th

Conversions For

3rd Down
49%
1st
4th Down
60%
7th
Red Zone
64%
4th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
39%
18th
4th Down
50%
15th
Red Zone
56%
18th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.4
21st
Created
1.8
2nd

Interceptions

Thrown
0.9
26th
Created
1.0
5th

Fumbles

Lost
0.5
15th
Created
0.8
3rd