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CHI logo

Chicago Bears

2014 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
5-11
nfelo Rating
139128th
Point Diff / Game
-7.727th
Net EPA / Play
-0.13827th

2014 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
BUF logo
BUF
L
20-23
-3
-7
L
-0
2
SF logo
SF@
W
28-20
+8
+7
W
27
3
NYJ logo
NYJ@
W
27-19
+8
+1.5
W
7
4
GB logo
GB
L
17-38
-21
+2
L
-48
5
CAR logo
CAR@
L
24-31
-7
+1.5
L
-2
6
ATL logo
ATL@
W
27-13
+14
+3.5
W
15
7
MIA logo
MIA
L
14-27
-13
-3
L
-22
8
NE logo
NE@
L
23-51
-28
+6
L
-11
9BYE WEEK
10
GB logo
GB@
L
14-55
-41
+9.5
L
-53
11
MIN logo
MIN
W
21-13
+8
-2.5
W
46
12
TB logo
TB
W
21-13
+8
-4.5
W
-4
13
DET logo
DET@
L
17-34
-17
+7
L
-37
14
DAL logo
DAL
L
28-41
-13
+4
L
-36
15
NO logo
NO
L
15-31
-16
+3.5
L
-159
16
DET logo
DET
L
14-20
-6
+10
W
138
17
MIN logo
MIN@
L
09-13
-4
+7
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.07
22nd
EPA / Pass
-0.09
26th
EPA / Rush
-0.03
6th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.06
29th
EPA / Pass
+0.16
31st
EPA / Rush
-0.04
27th
Sack EPA
-5.13
27th
Turnover EPA
-7.76
8th
Point Differential
-7.7
27th
Points For
19.9
23rd
Points Against
27.6
31st
Total Yards
327.7
20th
Passing Yards
195.6
18th
Rushing Yards
90.2
27th
Total Yards Allowed
377.1
30th
Passing Allowed
244.4
32nd
Rushing Allowed
112.7
16th

Conversions For

3rd Down
38%
24th
4th Down
46%
18th
Red Zone
64%
2nd

Conversions Against

3rd Down
42%
22nd
4th Down
63%
30th
Red Zone
51%
12th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.9
29th
Created
1.4
22nd

Interceptions

Thrown
1.2
30th
Created
0.9
16th

Fumbles

Lost
0.8
22nd
Created
0.5
21st