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CHI logo

Chicago Bears

2017 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
5-11
nfelo Rating
142624th
Point Diff / Game
-3.520th
Net EPA / Play
-0.08123rd

2017 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
ATL logo
ATL
L
17-23
-6
+7
W
-8
2
TB logo
TB@
L
07-29
-22
+7
L
-16
3
PIT logo
PIT
W
23-17
+6
+7
W
8
4
GB logo
GB@
L
14-35
-21
+7
L
25
5
MIN logo
MIN
L
17-20
-3
+3.5
W
-6
6
BAL logo
BAL@
W
27-24
+3
+5.5
W
5
7
CAR logo
CAR
W
17-03
+14
+3
W
2
8
NO logo
NO@
L
12-20
-8
+8.5
W
-6
9BYE WEEK
10
GB logo
GB
L
16-23
-7
-5
L
-10
11
DET logo
DET
L
24-27
-3
+3
P
3
12
PHI logo
PHI@
L
03-31
-28
+13.5
L
-18
13
SF logo
SF
L
14-15
-1
-2.5
L
-11
14
CIN logo
CIN@
W
33-07
+26
+6
W
34
15
DET logo
DET@
L
10-20
-10
+5
L
-10
16
CLE logo
CLE
W
20-03
+17
-5.5
W
7
17
MIN logo
MIN@
L
10-23
-13
+13
P
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.14
27th
EPA / Pass
-0.14
28th
EPA / Rush
-0.08
17th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.06
11th
EPA / Pass
-0.03
13th
EPA / Rush
-0.10
12th
Sack EPA
-4.90
20th
Turnover EPA
-5.84
15th
Point Differential
-3.5
20th
Points For
16.5
29th
Points Against
20.0
8th
Total Yards
287.6
30th
Passing Yards
175.7
24th
Rushing Yards
111.9
16th
Total Yards Allowed
319.3
7th
Passing Allowed
211.1
21st
Rushing Allowed
108.1
10th

Conversions For

3rd Down
35%
26th
4th Down
39%
23rd
Red Zone
61%
5th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
39%
20th
4th Down
55%
22nd
Red Zone
49%
10th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.4
20th
Created
1.3
16th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.8
13th
Created
0.5
29th

Fumbles

Lost
0.7
25th
Created
0.8
1st