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CHI logo

Chicago Bears

2020 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
8-9
nfelo Rating
152012th
Point Diff / Game
-0.616th
Net EPA / Play
-0.01617th

2020 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
DET logo
DET@
W
27-23
+4
+2
W
12
2
NYG logo
NYG
W
17-13
+4
-4.5
L
-5
3
ATL logo
ATL@
W
30-26
+4
+2.5
W
19
4
IND logo
IND
L
11-19
-8
+3.5
L
-7
5
TB logo
TB
W
20-19
+1
+3.5
W
3
6
CAR logo
CAR@
W
23-16
+7
+1.5
W
6
7
LAR logo
LAR@
L
10-24
-14
+6.5
L
-39
8
NO logo
NO
L
23-26
-3
+5.5
W
3
9
TEN logo
TEN@
L
17-24
-7
+6.5
L
-12
10
MIN logo
MIN
L
13-19
-6
+3.5
L
-5
11BYE WEEK
12
GB logo
GB@
L
25-41
-16
+8
L
-23
13
DET logo
DET
L
30-34
-4
-3
L
-6
14
HOU logo
HOU
W
36-07
+29
+1
W
32
15
MIN logo
MIN@
W
33-27
+6
+3
W
9
16
JAX logo
JAX@
W
41-17
+24
-9.5
W
57
17
GB logo
GB
L
16-35
-19
+4.5
L
-11
18
NO logo
NO@
L
09-21
-12
+9.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.03
22nd
EPA / Pass
-0.04
24th
EPA / Rush
-0.05
20th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.02
10th
EPA / Pass
+0.09
20th
EPA / Rush
-0.12
5th
Sack EPA
-4.05
18th
Turnover EPA
-5.41
20th
Point Differential
-0.6
16th
Points For
22.4
23rd
Points Against
23.0
13th
Total Yards
326.2
28th
Passing Yards
214.7
14th
Rushing Yards
99.8
26th
Total Yards Allowed
347.3
11th
Passing Allowed
220.9
22nd
Rushing Allowed
113.9
14th

Conversions For

3rd Down
33%
32nd
4th Down
59%
14th
Red Zone
56%
21st

Conversions Against

3rd Down
40%
11th
4th Down
57%
18th
Red Zone
55%
6th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.4
20th
Created
1.1
28th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.9
26th
Created
0.6
28th

Fumbles

Lost
0.4
9th
Created
0.5
21st