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  4. 2021
CHI logo

Chicago Bears

2021 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
6-11
nfelo Rating
142025th
Point Diff / Game
-5.624th
Net EPA / Play
-0.10425th

2021 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
LAR logo
LAR@
L
14-34
-20
+9.5
L
-28
2
CIN logo
CIN
W
20-17
+3
-2
W
-11
3
CLE logo
CLE@
L
06-26
-20
+7.5
L
-45
4
DET logo
DET
W
24-14
+10
-3
W
11
5
OAK logo
OAK@
W
20-09
+11
+5.5
W
15
6
GB logo
GB
L
14-24
-10
+5.5
L
-2
7
TB logo
TB@
L
03-38
-35
+11.5
L
-16
8
SF logo
SF
L
22-33
-11
+4.5
L
-9
9
PIT logo
PIT@
L
27-29
-2
+7
W
14
10BYE WEEK
11
BAL logo
BAL
L
13-16
-3
+5
W
14
12
DET logo
DET@
W
16-14
+2
-2.5
L
3
13
ARI logo
ARI
L
22-33
-11
+7.5
L
-54
14
GB logo
GB@
L
30-45
-15
+11.5
L
3
15
MIN logo
MIN
L
09-17
-8
+7
L
35
16
SEA logo
SEA@
W
25-24
+1
+7
W
-22
17
NYG logo
NYG
W
29-03
+26
-6
W
24
18
MIN logo
MIN@
L
17-31
-14
+3.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.11
27th
EPA / Pass
-0.17
30th
EPA / Rush
-0.04
18th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.01
16th
EPA / Pass
+0.03
20th
EPA / Rush
-0.01
19th
Sack EPA
-7.02
32nd
Turnover EPA
-7.23
4th
Point Differential
-5.6
24th
Points For
18.3
27th
Points Against
23.9
21st
Total Yards
307.7
24th
Passing Yards
189.0
21st
Rushing Yards
118.7
15th
Total Yards Allowed
316.8
5th
Passing Allowed
159.4
6th
Rushing Allowed
125.1
22nd

Conversions For

3rd Down
35%
32nd
4th Down
42%
28th
Red Zone
48%
30th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
38%
11th
4th Down
50%
11th
Red Zone
56%
14th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.7
30th
Created
0.9
27th

Interceptions

Thrown
1.2
29th
Created
0.5
29th

Fumbles

Lost
0.5
20th
Created
0.5
11th