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CIN logo

Cincinnati Bengals

2021 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
13-8
nfelo Rating
16018th
Point Diff / Game
+4.58th
Net EPA / Play
+0.0839th

2021 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
MIN logo
MIN
W
27-24
+3
+3
W
6
2
CHI logo
CHI@
L
17-20
-3
+2
L
-11
3
PIT logo
PIT@
W
24-10
+14
+2.5
W
50
4
JAX logo
JAX
W
24-21
+3
-7.5
L
-11
5
GB logo
GB
L
22-25
-3
+2.5
L
-1
6
DET logo
DET@
W
34-11
+23
-3.5
W
21
7
BAL logo
BAL@
W
41-17
+24
+6.5
W
30
8
NYJ logo
NYJ@
L
31-34
-3
-11.5
L
-14
9
CLE logo
CLE
L
16-41
-25
-1
L
-23
10BYE WEEK
11
OAK logo
OAK@
W
32-13
+19
-1.5
W
34
12
PIT logo
PIT
W
41-10
+31
-3.5
W
21
13
LAC logo
LAC
L
22-41
-19
-2.5
L
-13
14
SF logo
SF
L
23-26
-3
+2.5
L
-4
15
DEN logo
DEN@
W
15-10
+5
+3
W
7
16
BAL logo
BAL
W
41-21
+20
-7.5
W
39
17
KC logo
KC
W
34-31
+3
+4.5
W
-154
18
CLE logo
CLE@
L
16-21
-5
+6.5
W
180
19
OAK logo
OAK
W
26-19
+7
-6
W
-2
20
TEN logo
TEN@
W
19-16
+3
+4
W
-6
21
KC logo
KC@
W
27-24
+3
+7
W
127
22
LAR logo
LAR
L
20-23
-3
+4.5
W
-

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.04
12th
EPA / Pass
+0.12
9th
EPA / Rush
-0.07
22nd
Def. EPA / Play
-0.05
10th
EPA / Pass
-0.01
14th
EPA / Rush
-0.04
15th
Sack EPA
-6.19
31st
Turnover EPA
-5.53
17th
Point Differential
+4.5
8th
Points For
26.3
9th
Points Against
21.8
13th
Total Yards
355.5
14th
Passing Yards
248.0
3rd
Rushing Yards
99.3
24th
Total Yards Allowed
352.2
19th
Passing Allowed
236.7
28th
Rushing Allowed
103.2
7th

Conversions For

3rd Down
40%
15th
4th Down
63%
5th
Red Zone
55%
23rd

Conversions Against

3rd Down
41%
20th
4th Down
41%
2nd
Red Zone
58%
17th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.0
5th
Created
1.5
8th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.8
11th
Created
1.0
8th

Fumbles

Lost
0.2
2nd
Created
0.5
8th