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  4. 2023
CLE logo

Cleveland Browns

2023 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
11-7
nfelo Rating
152913th
Point Diff / Game
+0.214th
Net EPA / Play
+0.03910th

2023 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
CIN logo
CIN
W
24-03
+21
30
2
PIT logo
PIT@
L
22-26
-4
-2
L
-15
3
TEN logo
TEN
W
27-03
+24
-3.5
W
-76
4
BAL logo
BAL
L
03-28
-25
+1.5
L
-1
5BYE WEEK
6
SF logo
SF
W
19-17
+2
+9.5
W
109
7
IND logo
IND@
W
39-38
+1
-3.5
L
-105
8
SEA logo
SEA@
L
20-24
-4
+4.5
W
85
9
ARI logo
ARI
W
27-00
+27
-13
W
13
10
BAL logo
BAL@
W
33-31
+2
+5.5
W
-90
11
PIT logo
PIT
W
13-10
+3
-2.5
W
10
12
DEN logo
DEN@
L
12-29
-17
+1
L
69
13
LAR logo
LAR@
L
19-36
-17
+3.5
L
-26
14
JAX logo
JAX
W
31-27
+4
-2.5
W
12
15
CHI logo
CHI
W
20-17
+3
-2.5
W
-21
16
HOU logo
HOU@
W
36-22
+14
-3
W
20
17
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
37-20
+17
-7
W
-64
18
CIN logo
CIN@
L
14-31
-17
+7
L
43
19
HOU logo
HOU@
L
14-45
-31
-2.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.14
28th
EPA / Pass
-0.21
28th
EPA / Rush
-0.09
23rd
Def. EPA / Play
-0.18
1st
EPA / Pass
-0.23
1st
EPA / Rush
-0.12
4th
Sack EPA
-5.13
23rd
Turnover EPA
-10.32
1st
Point Differential
+0.2
14th
Points For
22.8
12th
Points Against
22.6
21st
Total Yards
335.9
16th
Passing Yards
220.2
5th
Rushing Yards
115.7
13th
Total Yards Allowed
275.1
1st
Passing Allowed
140.1
2nd
Rushing Allowed
103.8
10th

Conversions For

3rd Down
32%
29th
4th Down
50%
16th
Red Zone
57%
15th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
29%
1st
4th Down
40%
1st
Red Zone
71%
32nd

Turnovers / Game

Committed
2.2
32nd
Created
1.6
7th

Interceptions

Thrown
1.4
32nd
Created
1.0
5th

Fumbles

Lost
0.8
26th
Created
0.6
18th