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  4. 2012
DEN logo

Denver Broncos

2012 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
13-4
nfelo Rating
17172nd
Point Diff / Game
+11.12nd
Net EPA / Play
+0.1742nd

2012 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
PIT logo
PIT
W
31-19
+12
-1.5
W
20
2
ATL logo
ATL@
L
21-27
-6
+3
L
-9
3
HOU logo
HOU
L
25-31
-6
+1.5
L
-6
4
OAK logo
OAK
W
37-06
+31
-6.5
W
47
5
NE logo
NE@
L
21-31
-10
+6
L
5
6
LAC logo
LAC@
W
35-24
+11
27
7BYE WEEK
8
NO logo
NO
W
34-14
+20
-6
W
29
9
CIN logo
CIN@
W
31-23
+8
-5
W
17
10
CAR logo
CAR@
W
36-14
+22
-3.5
W
10
11
LAC logo
LAC
W
30-23
+7
-7.5
L
-4
12
KC logo
KC@
W
17-09
+8
-10.5
L
-10
13
TB logo
TB
W
31-23
+8
-8
P
-4
14
OAK logo
OAK@
W
26-13
+13
-10
W
-1
15
BAL logo
BAL@
W
34-17
+17
-3
W
54
16
CLE logo
CLE
W
34-12
+22
-11
W
13
17
KC logo
KC
W
38-03
+35
-17
W
18
18BYE WEEK
19
BAL logo
BAL
L
35-38
-3
-9
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.11
4th
EPA / Pass
+0.24
2nd
EPA / Rush
-0.12
26th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.06
3rd
EPA / Pass
-0.08
6th
EPA / Rush
-0.11
6th
Sack EPA
-2.57
4th
Turnover EPA
-6.84
12th
Point Differential
+11.1
2nd
Points For
30.4
2nd
Points Against
19.2
4th
Total Yards
398.0
4th
Passing Yards
157.0
29th
Rushing Yards
115.1
15th
Total Yards Allowed
301.8
2nd
Passing Allowed
206.9
19th
Rushing Allowed
94.9
4th

Conversions For

3rd Down
45%
3rd
4th Down
67%
3rd
Red Zone
61%
4th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
31%
1st
4th Down
37%
5th
Red Zone
58%
25th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.6
19th
Created
1.5
20th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.8
8th
Created
0.9
14th

Fumbles

Lost
0.9
27th
Created
0.5
21st