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  4. 2015
DEN logo

Denver Broncos

2015 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
15-4
nfelo Rating
15967th
Point Diff / Game
+4.39th
Net EPA / Play
+0.06510th

2015 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
BAL logo
BAL
W
19-13
+6
-4.5
W
-18
2
KC logo
KC@
W
31-24
+7
+3
W
2
3
DET logo
DET@
W
24-12
+12
-3
W
14
4
MIN logo
MIN
W
23-20
+3
-7
L
-18
5
OAK logo
OAK@
W
16-10
+6
-5.5
W
-9
6
CLE logo
CLE@
W
26-23
+3
-3
P
-3
7BYE WEEK
8
GB logo
GB
W
29-10
+19
+2.5
W
18
9
IND logo
IND@
L
24-27
-3
-3.5
L
-7
10
KC logo
KC
L
13-29
-16
-4
L
-57
11
CHI logo
CHI@
W
17-15
+2
-2
P
15
12
NE logo
NE
W
30-24
+6
+2.5
W
9
13
LAC logo
LAC@
W
17-03
+14
-6
W
24
14
OAK logo
OAK
L
12-15
-3
-6
L
-11
15
PIT logo
PIT@
L
27-34
-7
+7.5
W
-7
16
CIN logo
CIN
W
20-17
+3
-4
L
-6
17
LAC logo
LAC
W
27-20
+7
-10
L
3
18BYE WEEK
19
PIT logo
PIT
W
23-16
+7
-7
P
27
20
NE logo
NE
W
20-18
+2
+3
W
-6
21
CAR logo
CAR
W
24-10
+14
+4.5
W
-67

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.09
26th
EPA / Pass
-0.09
27th
EPA / Rush
-0.14
27th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.15
1st
EPA / Pass
-0.19
1st
EPA / Rush
-0.17
2nd
Sack EPA
-4.17
17th
Turnover EPA
-7.15
10th
Point Differential
+4.3
9th
Points For
22.2
18th
Points Against
17.9
4th
Total Yards
339.7
21st
Passing Yards
200.4
21st
Rushing Yards
106.1
17th
Total Yards Allowed
293.5
2nd
Passing Allowed
210.2
12th
Rushing Allowed
83.4
1st

Conversions For

3rd Down
33%
28th
4th Down
47%
22nd
Red Zone
46%
28th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
32%
2nd
4th Down
35%
8th
Red Zone
57%
17th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.9
29th
Created
1.7
9th

Interceptions

Thrown
1.3
30th
Created
0.9
13th

Fumbles

Lost
0.6
19th
Created
0.8
7th