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  4. 2022
DEN logo

Denver Broncos

2022 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
5-12
nfelo Rating
144921st
Point Diff / Game
-4.227th
Net EPA / Play
-0.08427th

2022 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
SEA logo
SEA@
L
16-17
-1
-6.5
L
7
2
HOU logo
HOU
W
16-09
+7
-10
L
-8
3
SF logo
SF
W
11-10
+1
+1.5
W
2
4
OAK logo
OAK@
L
23-32
-9
+2.5
L
-18
5
IND logo
IND
L
09-12
-3
-3
L
-18
6
LAC logo
LAC@
L
16-19
-3
+4
W
-116
7
NYJ logo
NYJ
L
09-16
-7
+2
L
101
8
JAX logo
JAX@
W
21-17
+4
+1
W
2
9BYE WEEK
10
TEN logo
TEN@
L
10-17
-7
+2.5
L
-15
11
OAK logo
OAK
L
16-22
-6
-2.5
L
-5
12
CAR logo
CAR@
L
10-23
-13
-2.5
L
-12
13
BAL logo
BAL@
L
09-10
-1
+8.5
W
15
14
KC logo
KC
L
28-34
-6
+8.5
W
-93
15
ARI logo
ARI
W
24-15
+9
-1.5
W
111
16
LAR logo
LAR@
L
14-51
-37
-3
L
-24
17
KC logo
KC@
L
24-27
-3
+13
W
14
18
LAC logo
LAC
W
31-28
+3
-6.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.11
28th
EPA / Pass
-0.15
29th
EPA / Rush
-0.08
27th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.02
13th
EPA / Pass
-0.07
7th
EPA / Rush
-0.05
14th
Sack EPA
-6.46
32nd
Turnover EPA
-5.64
12th
Point Differential
-4.2
27th
Points For
16.9
32nd
Points Against
21.1
12th
Total Yards
325.2
21st
Passing Yards
211.3
9th
Rushing Yards
113.9
21st
Total Yards Allowed
320.1
8th
Passing Allowed
167.9
9th
Rushing Allowed
109.8
10th

Conversions For

3rd Down
29%
32nd
4th Down
50%
16th
Red Zone
56%
14th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
34%
2nd
4th Down
64%
30th
Red Zone
51%
8th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.4
22nd
Created
1.4
15th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.9
22nd
Created
0.9
11th

Fumbles

Lost
0.5
11th
Created
0.5
20th