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  4. 2023
DEN logo

Denver Broncos

2023 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
8-9
nfelo Rating
141226th
Point Diff / Game
-3.325th
Net EPA / Play
-0.06625th

2023 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
OAK logo
OAK
L
16-17
-1
-3
L
-6
2
WAS logo
WAS
L
33-35
-2
-4
L
-8
3
MIA logo
MIA@
L
20-70
-50
+6
L
-16
4
CHI logo
CHI@
W
31-28
+3
-3
P
2
5
NYJ logo
NYJ
L
21-31
-10
-2
L
-37
6
KC logo
KC@
L
08-19
-11
+10.5
L
-25
7
GB logo
GB
W
19-17
+2
-1
W
27
8
KC logo
KC
W
24-09
+15
+7
W
7
9BYE WEEK
10
BUF logo
BUF@
W
24-22
+2
+7.5
W
12
11
MIN logo
MIN
W
21-20
+1
-2.5
L
-2
12
CLE logo
CLE
W
29-12
+17
-1
W
12
13
HOU logo
HOU@
L
17-22
-5
+3
L
-10
14
LAC logo
LAC@
W
24-07
+17
+3
W
17
15
DET logo
DET@
L
17-42
-25
+5.5
L
-26
16
NE logo
NE
L
23-26
-3
-7
L
-59
17
LAC logo
LAC
W
16-09
+7
-3.5
W
11
18
OAK logo
OAK@
L
14-27
-13
+3
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.06
20th
EPA / Pass
-0.06
20th
EPA / Rush
-0.08
19th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.01
24th
EPA / Pass
+0.05
26th
EPA / Rush
-0.04
19th
Sack EPA
-5.80
26th
Turnover EPA
-5.34
15th
Point Differential
-3.3
25th
Points For
21.0
20th
Points Against
24.3
27th
Total Yards
298.8
26th
Passing Yards
192.1
13th
Rushing Yards
106.7
19th
Total Yards Allowed
371.0
29th
Passing Allowed
177.9
14th
Rushing Allowed
137.2
30th

Conversions For

3rd Down
37%
22nd
4th Down
65%
4th
Red Zone
52%
19th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
33%
2nd
4th Down
47%
10th
Red Zone
58%
21st

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.4
19th
Created
1.5
14th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.5
4th
Created
0.6
19th

Fumbles

Lost
0.8
27th
Created
0.8
1st