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  4. 2025
DEN logo

Denver Broncos

2025 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
11-2
nfelo Rating
155411th
Point Diff / Game
+5.69th
Net EPA / Play
+0.0949th

2025 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
TEN logo
TEN
W
20-12
+8
-8.5
L
-10
2
IND logo
IND@
L
28-29
-1
-2.5
L
2
3
LAC logo
LAC@
L
20-23
-3
+2.5
L
-8
4
CIN logo
CIN
W
28-03
+25
-7.5
W
28
5
PHI logo
PHI@
W
21-17
+4
+4.5
W
13
6
NYJ logo
NYJ@
W
13-11
+2
-7
L
-6
7
NYG logo
NYG
W
33-32
+1
-8
L
-21
8
DAL logo
DAL
W
44-24
+20
-3.5
W
13
9
HOU logo
HOU@
W
18-15
+3
+2
W
12
10
OAK logo
OAK
W
10-07
+3
-9.5
L
-19
11
KC logo
KC
W
22-19
+3
+4
W
7
12BYE WEEK
13
WAS logo
WAS@
W
27-26
+1
-6
L
-7
14
OAK logo
OAK@
W
24-17
+7
-8.5
L
2
15
GB logo
GB
12/14
-
+2.5
-
-
16
JAX logo
JAX
12/21
-
-
-
17
KC logo
KC@
12/25
-
-
-
18
LAC logo
LAC
01/04
-
-
-

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.04
13th
EPA / Pass
+0.08
11th
EPA / Rush
+0.02
8th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.05
8th
EPA / Pass
-0.10
8th
EPA / Rush
-0.06
9th
Sack EPA
-2.11
1st
Turnover EPA
-3.14
29th
Point Differential
+5.6
9th
Points For
23.7
14th
Points Against
18.1
4th
Total Yards
342.6
10th
Passing Yards
160.8
26th
Rushing Yards
121.8
14th
Total Yards Allowed
282.0
3rd
Passing Allowed
193.0
20th
Rushing Allowed
89.0
2nd

Conversions For

3rd Down
41%
12th
4th Down
50%
20th
Red Zone
59%
13th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
31%
1st
4th Down
53%
14th
Red Zone
40%
1st

Turnovers / Game

Committed
0.8
4th
Created
0.9
25th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.7
14th
Created
0.5
21st

Fumbles

Lost
0.2
2nd
Created
0.4
21st