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  4. 2025
DEN logo

Denver Broncos

2025 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
15-4
nfelo Rating
153512th
Point Diff / Game
+4.77th
Net EPA / Play
+0.0737th

2025 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
TEN logo
TEN
W
20-12
+8
-8.5
L
-10
2
IND logo
IND@
L
28-29
-1
-2.5
L
2
3
LAC logo
LAC@
L
20-23
-3
+2.5
L
-8
4
CIN logo
CIN
W
28-03
+25
-7.5
W
28
5
PHI logo
PHI@
W
21-17
+4
+4.5
W
10
6
NYJ logo
NYJ@
W
13-11
+2
-7
L
-6
7
NYG logo
NYG
W
33-32
+1
-8
L
-21
8
DAL logo
DAL
W
44-24
+20
-3.5
W
13
9
HOU logo
HOU@
W
18-15
+3
+2
W
12
10
OAK logo
OAK
W
10-07
+3
-9.5
L
-19
11
KC logo
KC
W
22-19
+3
+4
W
7
12BYE WEEK
13
WAS logo
WAS@
W
27-26
+1
-6
L
-7
14
OAK logo
OAK@
W
24-17
+7
-8.5
L
2
15
GB logo
GB
W
34-26
+8
+1.5
W
19
16
JAX logo
JAX
L
20-34
-14
-3.5
L
-12
17
KC logo
KC@
W
20-13
+7
-13.5
L
9
18
LAC logo
LAC
W
19-03
+16
-14.5
W
68
19BYE WEEK
20
BUF logo
BUF
W
33-30
+3
-1.5
W
-100
21
NE logo
NE
L
07-10
-3
+3.5
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.02
17th
EPA / Pass
+0.06
11th
EPA / Rush
-0.03
17th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.05
7th
EPA / Pass
-0.13
5th
EPA / Rush
-0.03
17th
Sack EPA
-2.30
2nd
Turnover EPA
-3.60
30th
Point Differential
+4.7
7th
Points For
23.2
15th
Points Against
18.5
4th
Total Yards
334.9
12th
Passing Yards
149.3
28th
Rushing Yards
114.1
21st
Total Yards Allowed
283.4
4th
Passing Allowed
184.9
20th
Rushing Allowed
98.5
5th

Conversions For

3rd Down
41%
11th
4th Down
50%
21st
Red Zone
56%
21st

Conversions Against

3rd Down
36%
6th
4th Down
55%
16th
Red Zone
44%
3rd

Turnovers / Game

Committed
0.9
8th
Created
1.1
22nd

Interceptions

Thrown
0.7
15th
Created
0.6
19th

Fumbles

Lost
0.3
4th
Created
0.5
15th