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Detroit Lions

NFC North

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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nfelo History

Current nfelo
1603
Week 22, 2025
Best nfelo
1707
Week 13, 2024
Worst nfelo
1236
Week 15, 2009

Season History

2025
9-8
PF: 28.3 |PA: 24.3
nfelo: 1602
Rank #7
2024
15-3
PF: 33.1 |PA: 21.5
nfelo: 1731
Rank #2
2023
14-6
PF: 27.4 |PA: 23.8
nfelo: 1602
Rank #7
2022
9-8
PF: 26.6 |PA: 25.1
nfelo: 1512
Rank #11
2021
3-13-1
PF: 19.1 |PA: 27.5
nfelo: 1363
Rank #27
2020
5-11
PF: 23.6 |PA: 32.4
nfelo: 1341
Rank #29
2019
3-12-1
PF: 21.3 |PA: 26.4
nfelo: 1320
Rank #31
2018
6-10
PF: 20.3 |PA: 22.5
nfelo: 1391
Rank #24
2017
9-7
PF: 25.6 |PA: 23.5
nfelo: 1493
Rank #16
2016
9-8
PF: 20.7 |PA: 22.6
nfelo: 1455
Rank #23
2015
7-9
PF: 22.4 |PA: 25.0
nfelo: 1476
Rank #16
2014
11-6
PF: 20.1 |PA: 18.0
nfelo: 1547
Rank #12
2013
7-9
PF: 24.7 |PA: 23.5
nfelo: 1492
Rank #16
2012
4-12
PF: 23.3 |PA: 27.3
nfelo: 1471
Rank #19
2011
10-7
PF: 29.5 |PA: 25.4
nfelo: 1594
Rank #10
2010
6-10
PF: 22.6 |PA: 23.1
nfelo: 1470
Rank #16
2009
2-14
PF: 16.4 |PA: 30.9
nfelo: 1208
Rank #32