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  4. 2021
DET logo

Detroit Lions

2021 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
3-13-1
nfelo Rating
135827th
Point Diff / Game
-8.427th
Net EPA / Play
-0.15727th

2021 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
SF logo
SF
L
33-41
-8
+9.5
W
-34
2
GB logo
GB@
L
17-35
-18
+11.5
L
-1
3
BAL logo
BAL
L
17-19
-2
+7.5
W
2
4
CHI logo
CHI@
L
14-24
-10
+3
L
-11
5
MIN logo
MIN@
L
17-19
-2
+10
W
-9
6
CIN logo
CIN
L
11-34
-23
+3.5
L
-24
7
LAR logo
LAR@
L
19-28
-9
+16.5
W
6
8
PHI logo
PHI
L
06-44
-38
+3
L
-25
9BYE WEEK
10
PIT logo
PIT@
T
16-16
0
+5.5
W
-118
11
CLE logo
CLE@
L
10-13
-3
+13
W
154
12
CHI logo
CHI
L
14-16
-2
+2.5
W
1
13
MIN logo
MIN
W
29-27
+2
+7
W
10
14
DEN logo
DEN@
L
10-38
-28
+12.5
L
-59
15
ARI logo
ARI
W
30-12
+18
+13
W
-128
16
ATL logo
ATL@
L
16-20
-4
+7.5
W
33
17
SEA logo
SEA@
L
29-51
-22
+7.5
L
133
18
GB logo
GB
W
37-30
+7
+4
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.08
23rd
EPA / Pass
-0.05
21st
EPA / Rush
-0.09
25th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.08
30th
EPA / Pass
+0.16
29th
EPA / Rush
-0.00
21st
Sack EPA
-4.54
21st
Turnover EPA
-6.50
8th
Point Differential
-8.4
27th
Points For
19.1
25th
Points Against
27.5
31st
Total Yards
323.2
22nd
Passing Yards
179.9
25th
Rushing Yards
110.9
18th
Total Yards Allowed
380.0
29th
Passing Allowed
223.9
24th
Rushing Allowed
135.2
28th

Conversions For

3rd Down
35%
31st
4th Down
51%
21st
Red Zone
47%
31st

Conversions Against

3rd Down
45%
29th
4th Down
64%
28th
Red Zone
67%
30th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.4
16th
Created
1.1
21st

Interceptions

Thrown
0.8
14th
Created
0.6
22nd

Fumbles

Lost
0.5
20th
Created
0.5
11th