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  4. 2022
DET logo

Detroit Lions

2022 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
9-8
nfelo Rating
151211th
Point Diff / Game
+1.59th
Net EPA / Play
+0.0219th

2022 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
PHI logo
PHI
L
35-38
-3
+5.5
W
-8
2
WAS logo
WAS
W
36-27
+9
11
3
MIN logo
MIN@
L
24-28
-4
+6.5
W
-4
4
SEA logo
SEA
L
45-48
-3
-3.5
L
1
5
NE logo
NE@
L
00-29
-29
+3
L
-25
6BYE WEEK
7
DAL logo
DAL@
L
06-24
-18
+7
L
-14
8
MIA logo
MIA
L
27-31
-4
+3.5
L
2
9
GB logo
GB
W
15-09
+6
+3.5
W
6
10
CHI logo
CHI@
W
31-30
+1
+3
W
7
11
NYG logo
NYG@
W
31-18
+13
+3
W
8
12
BUF logo
BUF
L
25-28
-3
+9.5
W
10
13
JAX logo
JAX
W
40-14
+26
-1.5
W
18
14
MIN logo
MIN
W
34-23
+11
-1.5
W
46
15
NYJ logo
NYJ@
W
20-17
+3
+2
W
5
16
CAR logo
CAR@
L
23-37
-14
-2.5
L
-6
17
CHI logo
CHI
W
41-10
+31
-4
W
15
18
GB logo
GB@
W
20-16
+4
+5.5
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.06
4th
EPA / Pass
+0.17
3rd
EPA / Rush
-0.08
25th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.04
30th
EPA / Pass
+0.05
24th
EPA / Rush
+0.09
31st
Sack EPA
-3.05
4th
Turnover EPA
-3.99
30th
Point Differential
+1.5
9th
Points For
26.6
5th
Points Against
25.1
28th
Total Yards
380.5
4th
Passing Yards
183.6
17th
Rushing Yards
128.5
11th
Total Yards Allowed
392.6
32nd
Passing Allowed
201.5
22nd
Rushing Allowed
146.5
29th

Conversions For

3rd Down
41%
14th
4th Down
54%
10th
Red Zone
66%
4th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
45%
30th
4th Down
56%
21st
Red Zone
64%
26th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
0.9
2nd
Created
1.2
19th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.4
2nd
Created
0.7
19th

Fumbles

Lost
0.5
11th
Created
0.5
14th