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  4. 2011
GB logo

Green Bay Packers

2011 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
15-2
nfelo Rating
17472nd
Point Diff / Game
+10.82nd
Net EPA / Play
+0.1852nd

2011 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
NO logo
NO
W
42-34
+8
-5
W
9
2
CAR logo
CAR@
W
30-23
+7
-10.5
L
-2
3
CHI logo
CHI@
W
27-17
+10
-4.5
W
17
4
DEN logo
DEN
W
49-23
+26
-12.5
W
20
5
ATL logo
ATL@
W
25-14
+11
-6
W
20
6
LAR logo
LAR
W
24-03
+21
-14
W
-0
7
MIN logo
MIN@
W
33-27
+6
-10
L
1
8BYE WEEK
9
LAC logo
LAC@
W
45-38
+7
-6
W
9
10
MIN logo
MIN
W
45-07
+38
-13
W
33
11
TB logo
TB
W
35-26
+9
-13.5
L
-26
12
DET logo
DET@
W
27-15
+12
-4
W
6
13
NYG logo
NYG@
W
38-35
+3
-7
L
-2
14
OAK logo
OAK
W
46-16
+30
-12
W
1
15
KC logo
KC@
L
14-19
-5
-11
L
-17
16
CHI logo
CHI
W
35-21
+14
-13.5
W
-212
17
DET logo
DET
W
45-41
+4
+6.5
W
241
18BYE WEEK
19
NYG logo
NYG
L
20-37
-17
-8.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.22
2nd
EPA / Pass
+0.38
1st
EPA / Rush
-0.06
16th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.03
23rd
EPA / Pass
+0.07
23rd
EPA / Rush
+0.03
30th
Sack EPA
-4.10
19th
Turnover EPA
-4.14
31st
Point Differential
+10.8
2nd
Points For
34.1
2nd
Points Against
23.3
22nd
Total Yards
403.7
3rd
Passing Yards
303.4
1st
Rushing Yards
100.3
25th
Total Yards Allowed
412.5
32nd
Passing Allowed
269.6
32nd
Rushing Allowed
111.1
13th

Conversions For

3rd Down
48%
3rd
4th Down
44%
12th
Red Zone
65%
1st

Conversions Against

3rd Down
43%
27th
4th Down
25%
3rd
Red Zone
53%
17th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
0.9
2nd
Created
2.4
1st

Interceptions

Thrown
0.5
2nd
Created
1.9
1st

Fumbles

Lost
0.4
4th
Created
0.5
24th