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  4. 2013
GB logo

Green Bay Packers

2013 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
8-8-1
nfelo Rating
16047th
Point Diff / Game
-0.816th
Net EPA / Play
-0.01617th

2013 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
SF logo
SF@
L
28-34
-6
+5
L
-9
2
WAS logo
WAS
W
38-20
+18
-7.5
W
30
3
CIN logo
CIN@
L
30-34
-4
-3
L
-16
4BYE WEEK
5
DET logo
DET
W
22-09
+13
-10
W
22
6
BAL logo
BAL@
W
19-17
+2
-2.5
L
0
7
CLE logo
CLE
W
31-13
+18
-8.5
W
10
8
MIN logo
MIN@
W
44-31
+13
-7.5
W
14
9
CHI logo
CHI
L
20-27
-7
-10
L
-136
10
PHI logo
PHI
L
13-27
-14
+1
L
-137
11
NYG logo
NYG@
L
13-27
-14
+3.5
L
9
12
MIN logo
MIN
T
26-26
0
-6
L
49
13
DET logo
DET@
L
10-40
-30
+6.5
L
-40
14
ATL logo
ATL
W
22-21
+1
-3.5
L
6
15
DAL logo
DAL@
W
37-36
+1
+4.5
W
28
16
PIT logo
PIT
L
31-38
-7
+1
L
147
17
CHI logo
CHI@
W
33-28
+5
-3
W
-2
18
SF logo
SF
L
20-23
-3
+3
P
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.07
8th
EPA / Pass
+0.09
10th
EPA / Rush
+0.01
4th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.09
28th
EPA / Pass
+0.11
26th
EPA / Rush
+0.06
31st
Sack EPA
-4.04
14th
Turnover EPA
-7.56
13th
Point Differential
-0.8
16th
Points For
25.7
9th
Points Against
26.5
24th
Total Yards
393.2
4th
Passing Yards
240.4
5th
Rushing Yards
132.9
7th
Total Yards Allowed
372.8
24th
Passing Allowed
245.3
29th
Rushing Allowed
127.5
25th

Conversions For

3rd Down
41%
9th
4th Down
71%
2nd
Red Zone
51%
25th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
39%
17th
4th Down
61%
25th
Red Zone
56%
18th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.4
13th
Created
1.4
20th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.9
16th
Created
0.7
26th

Fumbles

Lost
0.5
8th
Created
0.7
9th