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  4. 2014
GB logo

Green Bay Packers

2014 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
13-5
nfelo Rating
16744th
Point Diff / Game
+7.63rd
Net EPA / Play
+0.1363rd

2014 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
SEA logo
SEA@
L
16-36
-20
+4.5
L
-14
2
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
31-24
+7
-7
P
0
3
DET logo
DET@
L
07-19
-12
+1
L
-14
4
CHI logo
CHI@
W
38-17
+21
-2
W
60
5
MIN logo
MIN
W
42-10
+32
-9.5
W
21
6
MIA logo
MIA@
W
27-24
+3
-1.5
W
2
7
CAR logo
CAR
W
38-17
+21
-6.5
W
27
8
NO logo
NO@
L
23-44
-21
+2
L
-29
9BYE WEEK
10
CHI logo
CHI
W
55-14
+41
-9.5
W
55
11
PHI logo
PHI
W
53-20
+33
-6
W
15
12
MIN logo
MIN@
W
24-21
+3
-7.5
L
-11
13
NE logo
NE
W
26-21
+5
-3
W
1
14
ATL logo
ATL
W
43-37
+6
-13.5
L
-5
15
BUF logo
BUF@
L
13-21
-8
-3.5
L
-24
16
TB logo
TB@
W
20-03
+17
-12
W
24
17
DET logo
DET
W
30-20
+10
-8.5
W
6
18BYE WEEK
19
DAL logo
DAL
W
26-21
+5
-5.5
L
-17
20
SEA logo
SEA@
L
22-28
-6
+8.5
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.11
3rd
EPA / Pass
+0.25
2nd
EPA / Rush
-0.07
12th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.03
17th
EPA / Pass
-0.03
7th
EPA / Rush
-0.05
24th
Sack EPA
-3.48
11th
Turnover EPA
-4.15
29th
Point Differential
+7.6
3rd
Points For
29.7
2nd
Points Against
22.1
14th
Total Yards
383.4
6th
Passing Yards
245.0
3rd
Rushing Yards
120.6
10th
Total Yards Allowed
347.7
15th
Passing Allowed
222.1
28th
Rushing Allowed
125.4
26th

Conversions For

3rd Down
47%
4th
4th Down
40%
22nd
Red Zone
56%
11th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
41%
18th
4th Down
53%
23rd
Red Zone
58%
23rd

Turnovers / Game

Committed
0.9
1st
Created
1.8
7th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.4
2nd
Created
1.2
4th

Fumbles

Lost
0.5
10th
Created
0.6
19th