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  4. 2009
HOU logo

Houston Texans

2009 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
9-7
nfelo Rating
156013th
Point Diff / Game
+3.411th
Net EPA / Play
+0.05911th

2009 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
NYJ logo
NYJ
L
07-24
-17
-4.5
L
-21
2
TEN logo
TEN@
W
34-31
+3
+7
W
23
3
JAX logo
JAX
L
24-31
-7
-4
L
-6
4
OAK logo
OAK
W
29-06
+23
-8.5
W
0
5
ARI logo
ARI@
L
21-28
-7
+6
L
0
6
CIN logo
CIN@
W
28-17
+11
+4
W
18
7
SF logo
SF
W
24-21
+3
-3.5
L
0
8
BUF logo
BUF@
W
31-10
+21
-3.5
W
19
9
IND logo
IND@
L
17-20
-3
+7.5
W
8
10BYE WEEK
11
TEN logo
TEN
L
17-20
-3
-3.5
L
-10
12
IND logo
IND
L
27-35
-8
+3
L
-5
13
JAX logo
JAX@
L
18-23
-5
-2
L
-20
14
SEA logo
SEA
W
34-07
+27
-7
W
17
15
LAR logo
LAR@
W
16-13
+3
-14
L
-1
16
MIA logo
MIA@
W
27-20
+7
+1
W
21
17
NE logo
NE
W
34-27
+7
-7.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.04
9th
EPA / Pass
+0.17
6th
EPA / Rush
-0.14
29th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.01
16th
EPA / Pass
-0.04
11th
EPA / Rush
-0.08
13th
Sack EPA
-2.34
4th
Turnover EPA
-7.59
10th
Point Differential
+3.4
11th
Points For
24.3
10th
Points Against
20.8
16th
Total Yards
382.9
5th
Passing Yards
199.5
10th
Rushing Yards
92.2
30th
Total Yards Allowed
324.8
14th
Passing Allowed
180.3
16th
Rushing Allowed
106.9
10th

Conversions For

3rd Down
40%
15th
4th Down
67%
4th
Red Zone
52%
12th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
39%
20th
4th Down
43%
7th
Red Zone
65%
30th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.9
24th
Created
1.5
21st

Interceptions

Thrown
1.1
18th
Created
0.9
21st

Fumbles

Lost
0.9
25th
Created
0.6
20th