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HOU logo

Houston Texans

2013 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
2-14
nfelo Rating
142127th
Point Diff / Game
-9.531st
Net EPA / Play
-0.15831st

2013 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
LAC logo
LAC@
W
31-28
+3
-6
L
24
2
TEN logo
TEN
W
30-24
+6
-7.5
L
-5
3
BAL logo
BAL@
L
09-30
-21
-17
4
SEA logo
SEA
L
20-23
-3
+1.5
L
-8
5
SF logo
SF@
L
03-34
-31
+4
L
-24
6
LAR logo
LAR
L
13-38
-25
-9
L
-144
7
KC logo
KC@
L
16-17
-1
+6.5
W
30
8BYE WEEK
9
IND logo
IND
L
24-27
-3
+1
L
26
10
ARI logo
ARI@
L
24-27
-3
+4
W
12
11
OAK logo
OAK
L
23-28
-5
-10.5
L
-9
12
JAX logo
JAX
L
06-13
-7
-10.5
L
-16
13
NE logo
NE
L
31-34
-3
+7
W
13
14
JAX logo
JAX@
L
20-27
-7
-3
L
-30
15
IND logo
IND@
L
03-25
-22
+6
L
77
16
DEN logo
DEN
L
13-37
-24
+10
L
-66
17
TEN logo
TEN@
L
10-16
-6
+6.5
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.13
30th
EPA / Pass
-0.15
29th
EPA / Rush
-0.07
22nd
Def. EPA / Play
+0.03
19th
EPA / Pass
+0.13
28th
EPA / Rush
-0.11
7th
Sack EPA
-4.65
23rd
Turnover EPA
-9.72
3rd
Point Differential
-9.5
31st
Points For
17.3
31st
Points Against
26.8
25th
Total Yards
347.4
13th
Passing Yards
238.3
6th
Rushing Yards
109.1
20th
Total Yards Allowed
317.7
6th
Passing Allowed
188.0
10th
Rushing Allowed
122.4
23rd

Conversions For

3rd Down
36%
22nd
4th Down
35%
26th
Red Zone
50%
26th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
35%
7th
4th Down
38%
8th
Red Zone
67%
32nd

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.9
24th
Created
0.7
32nd

Interceptions

Thrown
1.4
28th
Created
0.4
32nd

Fumbles

Lost
0.6
13th
Created
0.3
31st