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HOU logo

Houston Texans

2014 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
9-7
nfelo Rating
140925th
Point Diff / Game
+4.110th
Net EPA / Play
+0.07010th

2014 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
WAS logo
WAS
W
17-06
+11
-3
W
15
2
OAK logo
OAK@
W
30-14
+16
-3
W
43
3
NYG logo
NYG@
L
17-30
-13
+1
L
-14
4
BUF logo
BUF
W
23-17
+6
-3
W
2
5
DAL logo
DAL@
L
17-20
-3
+5
W
-3
6
IND logo
IND
L
28-33
-5
+2.5
L
-13
7
PIT logo
PIT@
L
23-30
-7
+3
L
-2
8
TEN logo
TEN@
W
30-16
+14
-3.5
W
8
9
PHI logo
PHI
L
21-31
-10
+2
L
-50
10BYE WEEK
11
CLE logo
CLE@
W
23-07
+16
+4
W
19
12
CIN logo
CIN
L
13-22
-9
-2.5
L
18
13
TEN logo
TEN
W
45-21
+24
-7
W
36
14
JAX logo
JAX@
W
27-13
+14
-6.5
W
5
15
IND logo
IND@
L
10-17
-7
+7
P
-116
16
BAL logo
BAL
W
25-13
+12
+6.5
W
15
17
JAX logo
JAX
W
23-17
+6
-8.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.06
19th
EPA / Pass
+0.00
17th
EPA / Rush
-0.07
14th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.13
2nd
EPA / Pass
-0.15
2nd
EPA / Rush
-0.13
8th
Sack EPA
-2.58
3rd
Turnover EPA
-6.12
16th
Point Differential
+4.1
10th
Points For
23.3
14th
Points Against
19.2
6th
Total Yards
344.6
16th
Passing Yards
130.9
32nd
Rushing Yards
135.1
5th
Total Yards Allowed
348.2
16th
Passing Allowed
212.1
23rd
Rushing Allowed
105.1
9th

Conversions For

3rd Down
39%
22nd
4th Down
59%
6th
Red Zone
53%
15th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
34%
2nd
4th Down
35%
7th
Red Zone
46%
4th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.5
19th
Created
2.0
1st

Interceptions

Thrown
0.8
11th
Created
1.3
3rd

Fumbles

Lost
0.7
19th
Created
0.8
6th