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  4. 2015
HOU logo

Houston Texans

2015 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
9-8
nfelo Rating
151013th
Point Diff / Game
-0.213th
Net EPA / Play
+0.00713th

2015 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
KC logo
KC
L
20-27
-7
+1
L
26
2
CAR logo
CAR@
L
17-24
-7
+3
L
-5
3
TB logo
TB
W
19-09
+10
-6
W
4
4
ATL logo
ATL@
L
21-48
-27
+4.5
L
-21
5
IND logo
IND
L
20-27
-7
-5
L
-33
6
JAX logo
JAX@
W
31-20
+11
+3
W
23
7
MIA logo
MIA@
L
26-44
-18
+4.5
L
-14
8
TEN logo
TEN
W
20-06
+14
-3.5
W
5
9BYE WEEK
10
CIN logo
CIN@
W
10-06
+4
+10
W
-30
11
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
24-17
+7
+4
W
43
12
NO logo
NO
W
24-06
+18
-3.5
W
45
13
BUF logo
BUF@
L
21-30
-9
+3
L
3
14
NE logo
NE
L
06-27
-21
+4.5
L
-64
15
IND logo
IND@
W
16-10
+6
+2
W
38
16
TEN logo
TEN@
W
34-06
+28
-3.5
W
18
17
JAX logo
JAX
W
30-06
+24
-6
W
23
18
KC logo
KC
L
00-30
-30
+3
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.10
28th
EPA / Pass
-0.05
26th
EPA / Rush
-0.12
22nd
Def. EPA / Play
-0.10
3rd
EPA / Pass
-0.12
4th
EPA / Rush
-0.11
12th
Sack EPA
-4.59
26th
Turnover EPA
-6.23
17th
Point Differential
-0.2
13th
Points For
19.9
26th
Points Against
20.2
10th
Total Yards
340.8
20th
Passing Yards
232.2
10th
Rushing Yards
108.6
16th
Total Yards Allowed
310.4
3rd
Passing Allowed
180.3
4th
Rushing Allowed
102.2
11th

Conversions For

3rd Down
39%
18th
4th Down
30%
32nd
Red Zone
57%
14th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
29%
1st
4th Down
58%
24th
Red Zone
57%
19th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.6
18th
Created
1.4
19th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.9
21st
Created
0.9
14th

Fumbles

Lost
0.6
20th
Created
0.5
22nd