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HOU logo

Houston Texans

2016 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
10-8
nfelo Rating
144024th
Point Diff / Game
-3.026th
Net EPA / Play
-0.03824th

2016 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
CHI logo
CHI
W
23-14
+9
-6
W
9
2
KC logo
KC
W
19-12
+7
11
3
NE logo
NE@
L
00-27
-27
+1
L
-16
4
TEN logo
TEN
W
27-20
+7
-4
W
4
5
MIN logo
MIN@
L
13-31
-18
+6
L
-18
6
IND logo
IND
W
26-23
+3
-3
P
3
7
DEN logo
DEN@
L
09-27
-18
+8.5
L
-24
8
DET logo
DET
W
20-13
+7
-1
W
2
9BYE WEEK
10
JAX logo
JAX@
W
24-21
+3
+3
W
1
11
OAK logo
OAK@
L
20-27
-7
+6.5
L
0
12
LAC logo
LAC
L
13-21
-8
+2.5
L
-39
13
GB logo
GB@
L
13-21
-8
+7
L
6
14
IND logo
IND@
W
22-17
+5
+6.5
W
3
15
JAX logo
JAX
W
21-20
+1
-3.5
L
-35
16
CIN logo
CIN
W
12-10
+2
-3
L
21
17
TEN logo
TEN@
L
17-24
-7
+3
L
1
18
OAK logo
OAK
W
27-14
+13
-4
W
20
19
NE logo
NE@
L
16-34
-18
+16.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.15
31st
EPA / Pass
-0.12
29th
EPA / Rush
-0.11
26th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.11
3rd
EPA / Pass
-0.07
4th
EPA / Rush
-0.16
4th
Sack EPA
-3.59
12th
Turnover EPA
-6.82
11th
Point Differential
-3.0
26th
Points For
17.9
28th
Points Against
20.9
12th
Total Yards
311.9
29th
Passing Yards
169.5
28th
Rushing Yards
115.9
7th
Total Yards Allowed
300.2
1st
Passing Allowed
177.4
7th
Rushing Allowed
97.6
11th

Conversions For

3rd Down
36%
27th
4th Down
39%
29th
Red Zone
41%
31st

Conversions Against

3rd Down
37%
7th
4th Down
27%
3rd
Red Zone
55%
16th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.5
21st
Created
1.3
21st

Interceptions

Thrown
1.1
25th
Created
0.9
13th

Fumbles

Lost
0.4
10th
Created
0.4
25th