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  4. 2023
HOU logo

Houston Texans

2023 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
11-8
nfelo Rating
151815th
Point Diff / Game
+1.611th
Net EPA / Play
+0.02613th

2023 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
BAL logo
BAL@
L
09-25
-16
+9.5
L
-10
2
IND logo
IND
L
20-31
-11
-7
3
JAX logo
JAX@
W
37-17
+20
+7.5
W
22
4
PIT logo
PIT
W
30-06
+24
+3
W
25
5
ATL logo
ATL@
L
19-21
-2
+2.5
W
5
6
NO logo
NO
W
20-13
+7
+2
W
8
7BYE WEEK
8
CAR logo
CAR@
L
13-15
-2
-3.5
L
-6
9
TB logo
TB
W
39-37
+2
-2.5
L
18
10
CIN logo
CIN@
W
30-27
+3
+5
W
46
11
ARI logo
ARI
W
21-16
+5
-5.5
L
-8
12
JAX logo
JAX
L
21-24
-3
+1
L
9
13
DEN logo
DEN
W
22-17
+5
-3
W
-7
14
NYJ logo
NYJ@
L
06-30
-24
-3
L
-50
15
TEN logo
TEN@
W
19-16
+3
+3
W
5
16
CLE logo
CLE
L
22-36
-14
+3
L
24
17
TEN logo
TEN
W
26-03
+23
-5.5
W
25
18
IND logo
IND@
W
23-19
+4
-1.5
W
9
19
CLE logo
CLE
W
45-14
+31
+2.5
W
22
20
BAL logo
BAL@
L
10-34
-24
+10
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.03
14th
EPA / Pass
+0.06
11th
EPA / Rush
-0.14
27th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.05
13th
EPA / Pass
-0.00
16th
EPA / Rush
-0.10
9th
Sack EPA
-4.41
15th
Turnover EPA
-2.94
32nd
Point Differential
+1.6
11th
Points For
22.7
13th
Points Against
21.1
11th
Total Yards
336.5
15th
Passing Yards
175.4
21st
Rushing Yards
92.8
28th
Total Yards Allowed
332.1
15th
Passing Allowed
165.5
6th
Rushing Allowed
101.7
8th

Conversions For

3rd Down
37%
20th
4th Down
36%
31st
Red Zone
55%
16th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
36%
6th
4th Down
51%
18th
Red Zone
55%
15th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
0.8
1st
Created
1.3
19th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.4
1st
Created
0.8
15th

Fumbles

Lost
0.4
13th
Created
0.4
25th